The bubble analogy is at best acceptable. I wouldn’t miss it when something else takes its place. If soap has to be involved, I’d rather picture cagers trying to climb a slope doused in soap than see them as either (1) a bubble itself, (2) sitting “on a bubble,” or (3) trying to keep a bubble from floating into something sharp. The slope evokes how difficult it can be to climb up and how easily one can fall back or out of it.

I’m nervous about the Big East.

Pittsburgh might have the right kind of profile to be snubbed. There’s nothing EVER wrong with beating Duke (Thank you again and again Mr. Maynor, too) - should Wake and Miami dance? - but that can’t be the only bullet point for Pitt to lean on. There’s other good wins, but they’re at home. The road/neutral record is reasonable at 5-6. I’d give them credit for “tough” losses at Marquette and Notre Dame if they’d kept those close. The real danger is if Pitt drops one of their remaining home games. I don’t particularly like their chances at Syracuse or WVU, so a flat performance against Cincinnati or DePaul could easily spell doom in the form of an 8-10 conference record and a 1-6 record to close the season. Even at 9-9, Pitt needs to show something in New York.

West Virginia should have an easier time of it - the stacked schedule is all but gone, leaving three games where they should be favored and a 4th in which close-game karma ought to swing back their way (against UConn). They should come out 11-7, with the superficially impressive 6-2 closing mark. I like their chances a lot better than Pitt’s.

Syracuse has lots of climbing to do (or, if you prefer bubbles, a Kentucky-borne breeze pushed their gossamer sphere awfully close to the dreaded thorn bush today). Their last chance to post a solid road win has come and gone. I think they can defend the dome against Pitt, but it’ll be close. Ditto for Seton Hall on the road and certainly Marquette. Even if they claw back to 9-9, the profile looks suspiciously similar to (and perhaps even worse given the disparity in conference records) last year - nothing good to speak of outside the Carrier Dome. One win against likely tournament teams. It’s just about necessary to run the table.

Villanova has exactly what it needs to have a chance - some momentum already building and a couple marquee matchups coming up. The Big East’s hottest teams are on deck and in the hole. Both Marquette and Louisville have been rolling for some time. Should Nova take one or especially both games, they look completely different. I like their chances to sneak up on one of the big boys in the next week. If they can carry that into a 10-8 finish, it’ll complete their own 6-2 finish to the season.

And that’s about it. I predict seven for the Big East - Syracuse will be left out this year (rightfully this time), West Virginia will cruise in and make me proud by upsetting somebody big, and Villanova will take Pitt’s place (they split a home-and-home this year in case you’re wondering). Cincinnati and Seton Hall, better luck next year.

Categories: Dan'l B, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Postseason
2 Comments »

Dan’l B noted that West Virginia is actually quite a good team who suffers from a low ranking because of losing a bunch of close games. UConn, up until today, had been winning a bunch of clos games. So it didn’t surprise me today that they lost in a close game against Villanova — one of these coin flips had to end up being tails. Here are the highlights, courtesy of ESPN:

Here are some quick thoughts I had. I’ll let Coach O affirm/negate my observations — perhaps he saw something different in person (if he ever made it to the game):

• Scottie Reynolds is so absolutely dangerous when he gets his shoulders square. He has one of the best-looking shots in the Big East.
• UConn typically plays a high post-low post game with Adrien in the high post and Thabeet in the low post. That makes sense superficially — Adrien is the power forward, is shorter, and has more basketball skills to make better decisions; Thabeet is 7′3′’ and is the center. But I think having Thabeet up top and Adrien down low is at least something to continue to try out. Thabeet surprised me with two great passes to Adrien down low, so perhaps his basketball skills aren’t that bad. Adrien is a better finisher than Thabeet and also can catch the ball in traffic. Here are two examples from the game:
  
  

  Both nontrivial passes — in the first one, he leads Adrien a bit, and in the second, he throws a left-handed, wraparound bounce pass.

• Villanova has the best jerseys in the Big East (although Marquette’s powder blue uniforms are pretty close). Syracuse and UConn have the worst jerseys.

Categories: Commentary, donald, Connecticut, Villanova, Game Banter
5 Comments »

I’m not sure how it happened, as I wasn’t able to see the game last night. But it sure seems like Villanova was down by 15 points with 3 minutes remaining in the game, and still beat LSU…in regulation. The bloggers at LetsGoNova have a good account of the action.

It seems as though LSU decided to employ the ever-popular “foul your opponent when he’s attempting a 3-pointer” strategy to ensure Villanova could get within striking distance.

Categories: Mister D, Villanova, Game Banter
1 Comment »

1. Old Dominion University is going to get its ass kicked today by Georgetown. Last year, Georgetown lost to ODU in a complete embarrassment at its campus home, McDonough Arena. Of course, Georgetown went on to have a great season, but I don’t doubt that JTIII is still smarting from that loss. Expect them to go Cobra Kai on them today. No mercy.

2. Remember this from two years ago at MSG. Not for those with weak stomachs:

That’s what you call tenacious D.

Categories: Commentary, Georgetown, donald, Villanova
5 Comments »

Nova will not have Curtis Sumpter this year. They will not have Mike Nardi and Will Sheridan. These are big losses. But they will have Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham back. After those two they wil have to roll the dice.

Frontcourt - Dante Cunningham is the returner up front. Cunningham (8.7ppg,5.4rpg) is a good start. Casiem Drummond (1.7ppg, 1.9rpg) will probably man the center position. Behind them only Frank Tchuisi (0.4ppg, 0.2rpg) has experience. Antonio Pena and Andrew Ott both redshirted last year. It will be a tall order for this frontcourt to compete against the better big men in the league. GRADE - C-

Backcourt - Scottie Reynolds (14.8ppg, 4.0apg) was brilliant at times. He also played out of control way too much. He has the tools to be the leader on this team. The question is… will he let his teammates play too? Shane Clark will move into the SF position. Clark (7.4ppg, 4.0rpg) can play small forward or shooting guard. He will fit in quite nicely. Reggie Redding (2.8ppg, 2.4rpg) will be the SG. Dwayne Anderson (3.5ppg, 1.9rpg) will lend experience at the guard position off the bench. Freshmen Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes are both highly regarded and may earn serious playing time. Malcolm Grant (FR) will back up Reynolds at the point. GRADE - B+

Depth - Anderson is the only man off the bench with real experience. The freshmen will see playing time almost immediately. If Drummond or Cunningham get hurt or into foul trouble,  Nova will be in big trouble. GRADE - D+

Outlook - It will be interesting to see if Reynolds matured from last year. He can dominate a game like no other player in the league. He can also cost the Wildcats games if he tries to do it all himself. The supporting cast for Nova will be just that…… supporting. GRADE - C+

Categories: Commentary, Contributors, Villanova, Coach O
2 Comments »