This is a late post. By the time most of you are reading this, the Pittsburgh-UConn game will likely be over. But I want to put down some of my thoughts and predictions about the game before it happens, just so I can “I told you so”:

• Sam Young will be large. Again: My prediction was right last time, and I stand by it this time. UConn has nobody to match up with Sam Young. The only person who might be able to shut him down is Stanley Robinson. Keep an eye on him during the game.
• DeJuan Blair won’t have a big game: Don’t get me wrong. He is, without a doubt, a better player than Hasheem Thabeet. But this time, expect Calhoun to double down on Blair. He realizes that Thabeet can’t handle him on his own. But Thabeet will have to at least stand his ground more this time around, so that the double team has time to come over.
• The game will be largely decided by Pitt’s shooting: With the doubling-down on Blair and emphasis on trying to contain Sam Young, there will be plenty of open shots. If Pittsburgh hits them, the game will be a blow out.
• AJ Price will have a big game: Maybe we should start calling him Big Game AJ. He reminds me a bit of Mike Bibby in the famed Sacramento Kings-Los Angeles Lakers playoff battle. Bibby was the only one on that team with the balls to say “Get on my back.” AJ Price has that same swagger.
• Kemba Walker: big unknown: Don’t be surprised if he plays a large role in this game.

I will be live-twittering the game over at http://twitter.com/bigeasthoops. This is the game of the season, and if you’re not pumped up, you’re probably some weenie ACC fan.

Categories: Commentary, Connecticut, donald, Pittsburgh
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I’ll only make one prediction for tonight’s enormous game between Pitt and UConn: Sam Young will be huge.

I have no clue about anything else, except that it’ll be a great game to watch.

Categories: Commentary, Connecticut, donald, Pittsburgh
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Does experience matter in the NCAA tournament? This is the third year that Ken Pomeroy has published weighted average experience. It’s still too early to count on any trends, but here’s a quick look at the top seeds from the last two tournaments (NCAA rank, school, tournament seed, experience, tournament finish):

2008

• ( 50) Kansas [1], 2.10 years: CHAMPION
• (134) Georgetown [2], 1.78: 2nd round 70-74 Davidson [10]
• (155) Tennessee [2], 1.74: Sweet Sixteen 60-79 Louisville [3]
• (197) Memphis [1], 1.61: Championship 68-75 Kansas [1] (OT)
• (205) UNC [1], 1.58: Final Four 66-84 Kansas [1]
• (229) UCLA [1], 1.51: Final Four 63-78 Memphis [1]
• (295) Duke [2], 1.22: 2nd round 67-73 WVU [7]
• (300) Texas [2], 1.19: regional final 67-85 Memphis [1]

2007

• ( 94) Wisconsin [2], 2.00: 2nd round 68-74 UNLV [7]
• (103) Florida [1], 1.97: CHAMPION
• (272) Georgetown [2], 1.35: Final Four 60-67 Ohio St. [1]
• (276) Ohio St. [1], 1.33: Championship 75-84 Florida [1]
• (287) Memphis [2], 1.27: regional final 76-92 Ohio St. [1]
• (294) UCLA [2], 1.21: Final Four 66-76 Florida [1]
• (309) Kansas [1], 1.11: regional final 55-68 UCLA [2]
• (329) UNC [1], 0.87: regional final 84-96 Georgetown [2] (OT)

Not enough data yet, and there aren’t certain patterns. My observations:

• The last two champions were experienced #1 seeds, the most experienced in fact. I think there’s something to that.
• Two of the three upsets were experienced #2 seeds, not that such teams are prone to early exits; it refutes the idea that experience makes you upset-resistant.
• There were 10 games played between #1 and #2 seeds in these two tournaments. The more experienced teams were 9-1 in such games. Take that with a grain of salt.

It’s worth looking at the top contenders this year and their experience levels. Here’s Joe Lunardi’s current #1, #2, and #3 seeds, which should capture nearly all of the #1 and #2 seeds in a month:

• ( 8 ) Marquette [3], 2.47
• ( 31) UConn [1], 2.20
• ( 78) UNC [1], 1.97
• (108) Pittsburgh [1], 1.88
• (115) Memphis [3], 1.85
• (146) Oklahoma [1], 1.75
• (148) Duke [2], 1.74
• (159) Louisville [2], 1.70
• (181) Clemson [3], 1.63
• (189) Michigan St. [2], 1.61
• (274) Wake Forest [2], 1.31
• (336) Kansas [3], 0.84

Compared to the last couple years when dominant freshman carried several teams to top seeds, most contenders are very experienced. I love seeing several Big East schools at the top.

Don’t hate me for my lists.

Categories: Commentary, Connecticut, Dan'l B, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh
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Not only is there a game tonight (strange, as usually only the Ivies play on Friday night — can anyone explain why there’s a game tonight?), but it might be the best game this week — Villanova goes to West Virginia.

Let’s look at the facts.

Villanova comes into the game smoking hot offensively, having scored 94 against Providence, 102 against Syracuse, and 102 against Marquette, and not surprisingly, having won all three games. Indeed, they haven’t lost since they played UConn close on January 21st. They’re ranked #13 in both the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls. Also, Big Willie Style fears them. Anything that puts fear in the heart of Big Willie puts fear into my heart.

On the other hand, West Virginia comes in ranked #7 in the country by Ken Pomeroy — above teams such as Oklahoma and Wake Forest (ranked #2 and #7 respectively by the AP), and namely above Villanova, ranked #12. They’re predicted by Pomeroy to win the rest of their games, including tonight against Villanova, their next game against Notre Dame, and their last game against Louisville (all notably at home). And Dan’l B fears them. Anything that puts fear in the heart of Dan’l B puts fear in my own heart.

What this game (and how West Virgina does for the rest of the season) represents is new school vs. old school. New school is Ken Pomeroy, Dan’l B, tempo-free statistics, favoring close losses over good teams over big wins over bad teams, and believing there’s no such thing as clutch play. Old school is Big Willie Style, watching tape, gut instincts, valuing any type of win over any type of loss, and believing that some players rise to the occasion when others do not. And New School and Old School just don’t agree on West Virginia — they don’t even get one measly vote in the AP poll, but they’re ranked 7th in the country by Ken Pomeroy.

New School vs. Old School. Who do you like tonight?

Categories: BlogWatch, Commentary, donald, Rankings, Villanova, West Virginia
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[Monday, March 9] What a run. At 16-8 (5-6) four short weeks ago, West Virginia looked like a bubble team in the making. They’d lost 4 of 6 and were struggling at both ends of the court. Seven solid-if-not-spectacular straight wins later, at 23-8, WVU will enter the NCAA tournament in a week as a #4 or #5 regardless of the outcome in Madison Square Garden. If they’re still playing Saturday, they could see a #3 Sunday night by their name.

Don’t be too surprised to see the above post in 26 days.

Categories: Commentary, Dan'l B, West Virginia
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