All ratings are updated, so who got underrated and overrated? Left out? Why does the RPI suck so much?

Let’s start with the last question. A common, silly refrain in NCAA land is that teams have “breakthrough seasons” such as Notre Dame’s fine improvement over last year. They went 16-14 in 2006 and were 1-8 in the Big East at one point. So you’d think that the ’06-’07 version of the Irish made huge strides on the way to 24-7 and 11-5. But was there a huge influx of talent and no senior departures? Luke Harangody deserves a lot of credit and Tory Jackson’s been effective since McAlarney made it onto this blog’s banner, but those two players are not nearly as good as Quinn and Francis were last year. I’d argue that the overall team talent is roughly the same after accounting for the rest of the guys maturing one year.

The RPI sucks because it focuses on achievement — namely wins — and will miss wildly on teams that lose lots of close games. In other words, have piss-poor luck. Anyone paying even marginal attention to the Irish last season remembers the ridiculous number of 1-possession and overtime losses. Notre Dame’s RPI went from #95 to #31 between seasons even though their performance quality is very nearly the same. Performance systems such as BigEastology here and, more importantly, Ken Pomeroy’s and Jeff Sagarin’s systems are much smarter at recognizing how teams perform. Pomeroy’s 2006 Irish were ranked #27, not far from their #17 rank in 2007.

Oregon is a better example. They were 15-18 last year and lost a similar number of close games. Since then, their RPI went from #147 to #21 in one year. Pomeroy ranks? #36 and #21. Like Notre Dame, the incoming talent did not outweigh departures, and I’m convinced that Pomeroy has a much more accurate impression of their quality both years.

The Snubbed:

• #20 Mississippi St. — That 18-13 record killed a perfectly good season. Thank you RPI (64). They weren’t as unlucky as the Irish and Ducks last year, but a little bit better luck was all they needed to get recognized. The team does not depend on seniors, so look for them to roll in the NIT and be a “surprise” next year.
• #25 Syracuse — Ahh yes, performance ratings like the Orange just fine. The RPI (50) must have had a lot to do with their fate.
• #28 Kansas St. — Interesting, yet another popular snub is supported by my methods (and Pomeroy, and Sagarin, etc.). I’m sure Bob Knight is giving Huggins hell at every opportunity. RPI? 56.
• #30 Missouri St. — the first obvious mid-major snub. Of note, they finished 8-3 with all three losses against NCAA tournament teams seeded #11 or better (at-large quality) — SIU, Winthrop, and Creighton. RPI? 36. Odd, that’s still decent.
• #32 West Virginia — Everything we’ve said and heard about the Big East getting snubbed is justified in my opinion, and I blame the RPI of course. For whatever reason, most Big East teams had depressed RPIs this year, so they sunk as a group. RPI? 57.

Overrated and underrated? They add up to the most likely upsets (by seeds #11 or worse):

Note: for the first round, I give home-court advantage to the big underdogs because the crowd almost always leans their way.

• #11 George Washington over #6 Vanderbilt. On a neutral court, Vandy enjoys a 5-point advantage, but give GW a home-court nudge and it should be a close one. Vegas favors Vanderbilt by 3.
• #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame. The Irish better have their sights squarely on this game as Winthrop is not a pushover. ND is about 6 points better on paper.
• #12 Arkansas over #5 USC. If its neutral, USC is favored by…actually Arkansas by 2. A perfect testament to how overrated the Pac 10 is. Vegas has USC by 1.5.
• #12 ODU over #5 Butler. Butler enjoys a 4-point advantage in quality, which would be offset exactly if the crowd pulls strongly for ODU. Vegas favors Butler by 1.
• #12 Illinois over #5 VT. VT is 2-3 points better on paper and Vegas likes ‘em by 2.5. I don’t think the crowd will see Illinois as a Cinderella, but it’s already close anyway.
• #13 Davidson over #4 Maryland. Maryland’s much better — 7 or 8 points — but for a #13 to be that close is a good start. Maryland is favored by 7.
• #13 Holy Cross over #4 Southern Illinois. The difference between them is about the same as MD and Davidson, and the line is the same.
• #14 Oral Roberts over #3 Washington St. The line is only 6.5 on this one for good reason. Washington St. has struggled lately, and I like Oral’s makeup tremendously.
• #15 Texas A&M Corpus Christi over #2 Wisconsin. Here’s the upset special. Texas A&M has all the right characteristics. They’re senior-laden (5 senior starters and the bench will be 2 juniors and another senior) and have had a short bench all season. Their best players are 7′ 0″ Chris Daniels and the senior backcourt of Ervin and Washington. Ervin is a solid point guard if he doesn’t turn it over, and Washington is one of the best offensive players in the country, particularly from downtown (89/187 = 47.6%). The achilles heel has been turnovers, and Wisconsin is not an exceptional TO generator. Wisconsin is a 13-point favorite.

My gut likes Arkansas, ODU, Illinois, and Texas A&M-CC to pull it off.

Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason, Rankings
4 Comments »

Top 25 Schools (complete list)

#   School             W- L     Rat    SoS   (r)  NCSoS   (r) -1W

1   Florida           11- 2    27.5    1.0 (159)    1.0 (168)   2

2   North Carolina    10- 1    27.2    5.1  (42)    5.1  (49)   1

3   Arizona            9- 1    24.9    8.2   (7)    8.2  (11)   3

4   Connecticut       11- 0    23.5   -3.3 (295)   -3.3 (300)   6

5   Texas A&M         10- 2    22.8    0.3 (184)    0.3 (192)   7

6   UCLA              10- 0    22.4    7.4  (13)    7.4  (17)  15

7   Kansas            10- 2    21.4    2.5 (108)    2.5 (123)   8

8   Villanova          8- 2    21.2    4.3  (64)    4.3  (69)   4

9   Notre Dame        10- 1    20.2   -2.2 (267)   -2.2 (271)  18

10  Ohio St           10- 2    20.1    5.2  (38)    5.2  (44)   5

10  Wisconsin         13- 1    20.1    1.4 (142)    1.4 (152)  26

12  Duke              11- 1    19.5    8.8   (3)    8.8   (6)  12

13  Oregon            11- 0    19.4    0.4 (183)    0.4 (191)  11

14  Maryland          11- 2    18.5    4.7  (51)    3.7  (87)   9

15  Gonzaga            9- 4    18.4    8.5   (5)    8.5   (9)  16

15  Illinois          12- 2    18.4    4.8  (48)    4.8  (57)  10

17  Indiana            8- 3    18.1    4.7  (51)    4.7  (59)  22

17  Clemson           12- 0    18.1   -0.9 (227)   -0.9 (232)  21

19  Kentucky           9- 3    17.6   11.1   (1)   11.1   (2)  28

19  Memphis            9- 3    17.6    5.4  (31)    6.3  (26)  37

21  Georgia            7- 2    17.5   -0.4 (210)   -0.4 (220)  14

22  Virginia Tech      8- 3    17.2    4.6  (54)    4.2  (71)  28

23  Georgia Tech       8- 3    17.0    4.9  (45)    5.2  (44)  37

24  Butler            11- 1    16.9    8.0   (8)    8.8   (6)  13

24  Missouri St        9- 2    16.9    2.9  (99)    2.8 (113)  17

The rest of the Big East

29  West Virginia      8- 1    15.5   -2.9 (283)   -2.9 (289)  30

34  Georgetown         9- 3    15.3    1.4 (142)    1.4 (152)  33

38  DePaul             7- 5    14.8    7.4  (13)    7.4  (17)  55

39  Pittsburgh        11- 2    14.7    3.5  (88)    3.5  (94)  51

52  Syracuse          10- 3    12.6    2.0 (122)    2.0 (136)  54

59  Marquette         11- 2    11.1    1.4 (142)    1.4 (152)  51

74  Providence         9- 2     9.0    1.5 (141)    1.5 (148)  64

78  Louisville         7- 4     8.4    3.2  (94)    3.2 (105) 110

92  Seton Hall         6- 2     7.2    0.0 (195)    0.0 (202)  74

99  Cincinnati         9- 3     6.2    1.4 (142)    1.4 (152) 103

128 St John's          8- 3     3.3   -2.9 (283)   -2.9 (289) 104

150 South Florida      7- 5     1.1   -3.0 (288)   -3.0 (293) 133

209 Rutgers            5- 5    -3.5    1.4 (142)    1.4 (152) 224

Top 10 Conferences (complete list)

#  Conference                 W- L     Rat    SoS  (r)  NCSoS  (r)

1  Atlantic Coast           105-32    13.9    3.3  (3)    2.6  (7)

2  Southeastern             107-30    12.8    1.9  (9)    1.9 (11)

3  Big Ten                  103-35    12.1    2.4  (6)    2.4  (8)

4  Pacific 10                88-22    11.7    2.0  (8)    2.0 (10)

5  Big East                 136-43    11.3    0.8 (17)    0.8 (18)

6  Big 12                    97-36    10.4    0.5 (22)    0.5 (24)

7  Missouri Valley           76-30    10.1    2.3  (7)    1.8 (12)

8  Mountain West             69-31     5.0    0.6 (20)    0.6 (22)

9  Conference USA            65-48     3.9   -0.1 (23)   -0.2 (25)

10 West Coast                41-56     3.6    4.3  (1)    4.3  (1)

Projected Big East Standings (view page)

#  School            pW*- pL*   pCSoS*   (r)     pW*- pL*      PS?

1  Connecticut      13.7- 2.3      9.3  (16)    26.9- 3.1   NCAA-1

2  Notre Dame       12.6- 3.4     10.0  (15)    24.6- 4.4   NCAA-3

3  Villanova        11.9- 4.1     12.7   (1)    22.7- 6.3   NCAA-2

4  West Virginia    10.2- 5.8     10.8  (11)    20.6- 7.4   NCAA-8

5  Depaul            9.8- 6.2     10.9  (10)    17.7-11.3  NCAA-10

6  Georgetown        9.6- 6.4     12.3   (3)    19.2- 9.8   NCAA-9

7  Pittsburgh        9.3- 6.7     12.0   (6)    21.9- 9.1  NCAA-10

8  Syracuse          8.3- 7.7     12.1   (5)    19.3-10.7      NIT

9  Providence        7.5- 8.5     10.2  (14)    17.7-11.3      NIT

9  Marquette         7.5- 8.5     12.0   (6)    19.5-10.5      NIT

11 Seton Hall        6.5- 9.5     10.4  (12)    14.9-13.1      NIT

12 Louisville        6.4- 9.6     12.2   (4)    15.2-13.8      NIT

13 Cincinnati        5.9-10.1     10.4  (12)    15.7-14.3      NIT

14 St John's         4.0-12.0     11.3   (9)    13.0-16.0

15 South Florida     3.4-12.6     11.6   (8)    11.8-18.2

16 Rutgers           1.5-14.5     12.4   (2)     7.3-20.7

• If, for the sake of discussion, I give these rankings more credit than they deserve, the threshold for NCAA tournament at-large consideration is a rating of about 13.0. Seven BEast schools are solidly above that threshold, with an upper-tier of UConn, Villanova, and the Irish, and a mid-tier of WVU, the Hoyas, DePaul, and Pitt. Syracuse and Marquette have put themselves on the bubble.
• Clearly, the rest of the season will be much more important than what we’ve seen so far. These rankings and ratings are intended to give some perspective on the quality of play and competition thus far. From here, performing above .500 in conference play and doing well in the conference tournament will move these teams up and down significantly.
• Pittsburgh played great basketball in their first half-dozen games and looked like the upper-tier team that their ranking predicated. The second half-dozen was not so satisfactory. NIT-quality teams would produce that record, with medicore results against subpar schools — wins by 14, 17, and 3 over R. Morris, Duquesne, and Buffalo — and unimpressive games against big conference schools on the road. Saturday’s victory over a decent Dayton squad was a much better performance, and if those types of games continue, it will be a matter of time before Pitt rises back to the top.
• The small conference schools are sliding. Butler and Missouri St. are barely in the top 25 and Wichita St.’s recent losses have pushed them out. Only Gonzaga has held steady at #15.

Categories: Dan'l B, Rankings
2 Comments »

I guess I’ve lied, because here’s the belated rankings for week 2. I have made a few changes:

• The ratings are now expressed in terms of points above and below average. A rating of 0.0 indicates that the team is as mediocre as it can be.
• There were a few errors in my data that were corrected.
• I’ve added a column that shows the rank one week prior, labeled “-1W”. It is always based on the ratings from seven days ago, so the -1W ranking will not necessarily match the Top25 post from about one week prior.

Top 25 Schools (complete list)

#   School             W- L     Rat    SoS   (r)  NCSoS   (r) -1W

1   Florida            9- 2    28.3    0.4 (173)    0.4 (181)   1

2   North Carolina     9- 1    26.2    5.2  (45)    5.2  (55)   3

3   Arizona            8- 1    25.1    7.8  (11)    7.8  (15)   2

4   Ohio St           10- 1    22.4    3.9  (84)    3.9  (97)   5

5   Kansas             9- 2    21.9    2.4 (120)    2.4 (131)  11

6   Connecticut        9- 0    21.8   -3.6 (286)   -3.6 (290)   4

7   Texas A&M          9- 2    21.6    0.4 (173)    0.4 (181)   9

8   Illinois          11- 2    21.1    6.3  (23)    6.3  (29)  23

8   Maryland          10- 2    21.1    5.7  (35)    4.7  (70)  12

10  Villanova          6- 2    20.5    5.9  (31)    5.9  (41)   6

11  Butler            10- 1    19.4    9.6   (5)   10.6   (3)   9

12  Duke              10- 1    19.3    8.1   (9)    8.1  (14)  16

12  Oregon            10- 0    19.3   -0.8 (216)   -0.8 (217)  30

14  Georgia            7- 1    19.1   -2.3 (258)   -2.3 (264)  22

15  UCLA               9- 0    18.0    5.5  (38)    5.5  (48)  17

16  Indiana            6- 3    17.9    5.9  (31)    5.9  (41)  31

17  Gonzaga            9- 3    17.6    6.1  (29)    6.1  (37)  25

17  Missouri St        8- 2    17.6    4.1  (78)    3.7 (100)  24

19  Clemson           11- 0    17.1    0.1 (184)    0.1 (190)  20

20  UNLV               9- 2    17.0    5.0  (50)    5.0  (60)  18

21  Boston College     7- 2    16.7    3.9  (84)    1.7 (153)  33

21  Notre Dame         9- 1    16.7   -2.2 (255)   -2.2 (258)   7

23  Purdue             9- 2    16.6    5.5  (38)    5.5  (48)  37

24  Missouri           9- 2    16.4    4.5  (70)    4.5  (79)  26

24  Michigan St       11- 2    16.4    4.5  (70)    4.5  (79)  14

24  Wisconsin         11- 1    16.4    3.2  (97)    3.2 (113)  38

24  LSU                6- 2    16.4    2.1 (130)    2.1 (138)   8

24  West Virginia      7- 1    16.4   -1.4 (235)   -1.4 (236)  35

The rest of the Big East

44  Georgetown         7- 3    13.8    2.2 (127)    2.2 (136)  70

48  DePaul             5- 5    12.8    7.5  (13)    7.5  (19)  57

52  Syracuse           9- 3    12.2    2.8 (110)    2.8 (121)  54

52  Pittsburgh        10- 1    12.2    2.4 (120)    2.4 (131)  45

54  Marquette         10- 2    12.1    2.1 (130)    2.1 (138)  60

61  Providence         8- 2    11.1    3.1 (100)    3.1 (115)  52

69  Seton Hall         5- 1     9.7   -4.4 (297)   -4.4 (302)  66

101 Cincinnati         7- 3     6.4    1.9 (136)    1.9 (144)  97

104 St John's          6- 3     5.7   -1.1 (225)   -1.1 (226)  99

117 Louisville         4- 4     4.4    5.6  (36)    5.6  (45)  81

127 South Florida      7- 3     2.7   -5.3 (320)   -5.3 (319) 132

223 Rutgers            4- 5    -4.4    1.3 (154)    1.3 (165) 233

Top 10 Conferences (complete list)

#  Conference                 W- L     Rat    SoS  (r)  NCSoS  (r)

1  Atlantic Coast            95-26    14.8    3.2  (4)    2.4  (9)

2  Southeastern              94-25    13.1    1.5 (12)    1.5 (13)

3  Big Ten                   91-32    11.5    2.8  (6)    2.8  (7)

4  Big East                 113-39    10.9    1.0 (14)    1.0 (15)

5  Pacific 10                79-19    10.5    0.7 (16)    0.7 (17)

6  Missouri Valley           65-25    10.4    2.2  (8)    1.8 (10)

7  Big 12                    85-34     9.6   -0.2 (23)   -0.2 (25)

8  Mountain West             64-24     5.6    0.0 (22)    0.0 (24)

9  Conference USA            55-39     4.4   -0.2 (23)   -0.3 (27)

10 West Coast                38-49     3.0    3.6  (3)    3.6  (5)

Projected Big East Standings (view page)

#  School            W-L      Rat      pW*- pL*    pCSoS*  (r)

1  Connecticut       0-0     21.8     13.5- 2.5       8.8 (16)

2  Villanova         0-0     20.5     12.0- 4.0      11.7  (4)

3  Notre Dame        0-0     16.7     11.4- 4.6      10.0 (15)

4  West Virginia     0-0     16.4     10.8- 5.2      10.6 (10)

5  Georgetown        0-0     13.8      9.3- 6.7      11.6  (5)

6  Depaul            0-0     12.8      9.2- 6.8      10.3 (11)

7  Syracuse          0-0     12.2      8.5- 7.5      11.5  (6)

8  Providence        0-0     11.1      8.4- 7.6      10.2 (12)

8  Marquette         0-0     12.1      8.4- 7.6      11.1  (7)

10 Pittsburgh        0-0     12.2      8.0- 8.0      12.0  (3)

11 Seton Hall        0-0      9.7      7.6- 8.4      10.2 (13)

12 Cincinnati        0-0      6.4      6.2- 9.8      10.0 (14)

13 St John's         0-0      5.7      5.1-10.9      10.7  (8)

14 Louisville        0-0      4.4      4.3-11.7      12.1  (2)

15 South Florida     0-0      2.7      4.2-11.8      10.7  (9)

16 Rutgers           0-0     -4.4      1.1-14.9      12.5  (1)

* p denotes projected wins, losses, and schedule strength (conference games only).

Categories: Dan'l B, Rankings
2 Comments »

I’ll be on the shelf recovering from arthroscopic surgery over the next few days and weeks. I have access to write, but won’t be able to reasonable run the Bigeastology scripts to calculate ratings. I don’t expect that many care, but for those who do, I apologize for the delay.

Categories: Dan'l B, Rankings
1 Comment »

Now that the season is a month old, we can start to get a picture of the elite and very good teams. Yet pollsters have not budged much from their initial guesses. I’ve talked to donald, who has more to say (vent) about this, so here’s a brief list of some of my complaints:

• It seems that “what have you done for me lately?” matters greatly, evidenced by the fact that losses will drop a team in the polls, no matter who they lose to or how well they play. If that’s the case, doesn’t it make sense to make big changes each week? Shouldn’t some of November’s big winners have shot up towards the top of the poll? Shouldn’t teams playing absolutely no one — UConn, that’s you — not move up at best?
• Conversely, it seems that the pollsters’ objective is to prognosticate about the end of the season. If this were the case, some losses would be more easily overlooked when weighed against the rest of the season. When #23 drops a close game to the #1 team, should they really drop out of the top 25?
• It all stems from a fundamental problem — no matter what poll it is, last week’s ranking carries significant weight towards this week’s ranking. A little humility is needed — pollsters should be willing to throw out their opinions from a week ago instead of reaffirming them. It leads to games like last week’s Bama-ND clash, in which the better team is unranked and the actual underdog is in the top five. ESPN.com gets to run some punny “upset special” heading on their front page, Vegas has no idea where to set the line, and the correction in public opinion is never enough (Alabama dropped to #9 and ND moved to #21 in one poll and #27 in the other).

So here’s our objective impression of the top 25. The ranking of all 336 schools can be found here.

School              W- L    Rat   (r)    SoS   (r)  NCSoS   (r)

Florida             8- 2   99.0   (1)   71.4  (87)   71.4 (100)

Arizona             7- 1   92.3   (2)   79.9   (3)   79.9   (5)

North Carolina      7- 1   92.3   (2)   77.0  (11)   77.0  (16)

Notre Dame          7- 1   89.6   (4)   69.9 (131)   69.9 (139)

Villanova           6- 2   89.6   (4)   77.3   (9)   77.3  (11)

Ohio St             8- 1   89.6   (4)   71.9  (73)   71.9  (86)

Connecticut         8- 0   89.4   (7)   64.4 (281)   64.4 (287)

Butler              9- 1   88.1   (8)   78.0   (6)   76.9  (19)

LSU                 5- 2   88.1   (8)   71.8  (74)   71.8  (88)

Kansas              8- 2   87.9  (10)   73.4  (47)   73.4  (56)

Maryland            9- 2   87.6  (11)   75.5  (20)   74.3  (40)

Texas A&M           7- 2   87.4  (12)   69.5 (154)   69.5 (159)

Clemson             9- 0   87.2  (13)   69.4 (155)   69.4 (161)

Oregon              7- 0   87.2  (13)   69.9 (131)   69.9 (139)

Texas               6- 2   86.9  (15)   69.6 (153)   69.6 (157)

UCLA                7- 0   86.7  (16)   74.1  (36)   74.1  (43)

Michigan St         9- 2   86.5  (17)   74.1  (36)   74.1  (43)

Georgia             5- 1   86.5  (17)   61.2 (322)   61.2 (323)

Air Force           9- 1   86.4  (19)   68.1 (191)   68.1 (195)

Xavier              7- 2   86.3  (20)   73.3  (50)   73.3  (60)

Duke                9- 1   86.2  (21)   73.8  (42)   73.8  (49)

Illinois            9- 2   85.9  (22)   70.9  (97)   70.9 (111)

UNLV                6- 2   85.8  (23)   80.1   (2)   80.1   (3)

Gonzaga             9- 2   85.7  (24)   72.4  (62)   72.4  (74)

Missouri            9- 1   85.5  (25)   73.2  (51)   73.2  (61)

You might question how Florida could be #1 by a huge margin, and if so, you’re probably too blinded by their two losses to have noticed how well they’ve played the rest of the season. Florida, Arizona, and UNC remain popular Final Four picks and populate the top three spots. UCLA, on the other hand, is #1 in both polls but stands at #16 here.

The Big East has just three representatives. I’m shocked that I have UConn ahead of their current poll standing. As usual, they’ve destroyed everything the state of Connecticut can throw at them, plus a couple other scrubs. Calhoun has pushed out any semblence of competitive nonconference basketball to 2007. Can they maintain their efficiency when the competition gets better?

Notre Dame has been very good, and I’ve touted them plenty here. I love the way they play. It hasn’t translated to the polls yet, however. Here’s a situation where significant preseason bias will prevent them from getting due respect for a while.

My favorite surprise is Villanova. Not only are they not in either poll, they haven’t been ranked as high as 25 on a single ballot. Subjectively, #4 in the country is unrealistic, but they’re better than nearly everybody thinks.

I expect this ranking to change greatly moving forward. Pittsburgh and West Virginia are not far from cracking the top 25, and I expect Pitt to do so as their competition gets better. They’ll rise to the occasion. Marquette and Syracuse have not played as well as the polls suggest; the voters must expect better things from them.

Categories: Dan'l B, Rankings
4 Comments »