Archive for the 'Postseason' category
March 26, 2009 10:18 am by Dan'l B
Borrowing heavily from Ken Pomeroy’s breakdown on Basketball Prospectus (in other words, copy and paste), here’s a primer for the rest of the tournament with a Big East perspective. First, odds by round for each remaining squad (check out Ken’s article for perspective on how this compares to the rest):
Seed Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1W UConn 72.8 37.4 24.5 15.4
1MW Louisville 77.5 47.6 26.0 12.4
1E Pitt 68.3 40.1 17.0 9.1
3S Syracuse 52.2 20.8 9.7 3.7
3E Villanova 40.8 17.2 5.1 2.0
These results should resemble those I posted at the beginning of the week. Ken used updated ratings to generate these probabilities whereas I had used the pre-tournament numbers. UConn’s huge wins greatly improved their numbers, but Pitt and Louisville each lost ground thanks to their closer calls. Nova and Cuse also both improved relative to the remaining competition.
Combining all these probabilities, I generated the net probability of various events occurring. Here you go:
Sweet Sixteen Results:
4-1 28.7% 4+ 36.9%
3-2 36.2% 3+ 73.1%
2-3 20.8% 2+ 93.9%
1-4 5.5% 1+ 99.5%
Elite Eight wins:
3 15.5% 3+ 17.7%
2 36.7% 2+ 54.4%
1 34.5% 1+ 88.9%
Final Four wins:
1 50.2% 1+ 83.9%
We should see 3 or 4 wins tonight and tomorrow. Anything else would be a shocker, akin to the lill shocker that Wichita State administered to Tennessee in the 2006 tournament.
March 23, 2009 10:47 am by Dan'l B
March 16, 2009 2:23 pm by Dan'l B
(Courtesy of Ken Pomeroy’s pythagorean figures and Bill James’ Log5 formula)
Team W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6
Louisville .97 .80 .59 .37 .18 .10
Pittsburgh .94 .72 .54 .32 .18 .09
UConn .98 .70 .47 .22 .13 .07
WVU .87 .54 .35 .19 .08 .04
Syracuse .86 .46 .26 .10 .05 .02
Villanova .87 .38 .17 .07 .03 .01
Marquette .72 .31 .08 .03 .01 .01
TOTALS 6.20 3.91 2.46 1.31 .66 .33
Midwest 1.84 1.34 .94 .56 .26 .14
East 1.81 1.10 .70 .39 .21 .10
West 1.70 1.01 .56 .25 .14 .08
South .86 .46 .26 .10 .05 .02
Max .42 .01 .00 .01 .10 .33
As top overall #1 seed, Louisville was actually rewarded with a smooth path to the Elite Eight in the Midwest. Wake Forest and Utah are underwhelming #4 and #5 seeds. After that, I love how WVU is the Pomeroy favorite to meet Louisville in Indianapolis. Pomeroy puts the odds of a Big East Final Four entrant from the Midwest at 56%. I’m predicting a bit of conference cannibalism here.
Out West, UConn has a decent draw, but Marquette drew one of the best upset candidates I identified pre-tournament. Fear the Big Blue of Utah State. Missouri would also be favored over Marquette in the 2nd round. Compound that with Dominic James’ injury, and the final chapter on this season doesn’t look to be a good one. The other half of the Big East’s “infirmary region” pair, UConn, will be favored as expected through three, but Memphis will get revenge for the #1-seed decision.
Pitt’s draw is almost as kind as Louisville’s, and I love how they matchup with their likely opponents late in the regional. Villanova did not get so lucky. Another underseeded #6 seed lies in waiting. Despite the homecooking in Philly, the Bruins will prove too much.
Syracuse and Arizona St., should they meet, will be a great game. They’re so close, it could easily take six overtimes to decide it. The cool thing is, the winner will face the same level of opponent, at best, in Oklahoma. Nothing against the Sooners; they’re simply overrated. Two coin flip games, but if they both come up heads for Cuse, we should have Elite Eight teams in every region and the talk will be, “can the BEast field four of Four?” Too bad UNC will take care of that.
Unfortunately, Memphis and UNC are favorites over our best, Louisville and Pitt. It’ll be a good tournament for the Big East through the middle rounds, but neither finalist will come from here.
The “Max” line indicates the odds that the Big East takes every game they could each round. In other words, there’s a 42% chance all seven win the first one and a 33% chance the champion is ours. In between, there’s really no chance of anything aside from an all-Big East final. For kicks, Log5 puts the odds of an all-Big East Final Four at 0.57%.
March 15, 2009 4:45 pm by Mister D
Here are a few predictions before the selection show.
Louisville: #1 seed (maybe even the #1 overall, considering UNC lost)
Pitt: #1 seed
UConn: #2 seed
Syracuse: #4 seed
Villanova: #4 seed
Marquette: #5 seed
WVU: #6 seed
Providence: a young team…will have to hope for next year.
March 14, 2009 8:55 pm by Mister D
Sure. We know what Championship Week and March Madness are all about: the drama and the tradition of the best college basketball teams in the nation going head-to-head, trying as hard as they can to make it to the field of 65. And for those that do make it, it’s about playing in a do-or-die tournament that’s probably the most exciting in the world.
But beyond those general, overarching pursuits, this time of year is also about college players making a name for themselves (and, potentially, millions of dollars in a sweet NBA contract because of their name recognition).
I’ll give you an example. Last year, which names did you hear constantly throughout the season? Michael Beasley. OJ Mayo. Kevin Love. But who, after an amazing NCAA Tournament where he went from a no-name point guard to absolute stud, was the first pick in the NBA draft and the likely NBA rookie of the year? Derrick Rose. He went from nobody to mega-star.
In fact, there are several guys every year who start out the month of March as relative no-names, and who play their way, either by way of their conference tournament or the NCAA tournament, into the NBA. Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Brandan Wright, Jeff Green. I could go on.
The point is, these guys made a name for themselves in March, and they decided to capitalize on it. If they’re smart (assuming they care about making lots of dough), athletes will make the jump and cash in on their name when the buzz is up and player stock is high. After the past 48 hours, I fully expect Jonny Flynn to do this. A few days ago, nobody outside of the Big East knew who Jonny Flynn was. Now, everyone knows this guy is a warrior, a talented floor general, and somebody with tons and tons of heart who also happens to be quite marketable. As much as I love his game and would not want him to leave, I actually think he should leave. His name recognition will never be higher. His stock is up. Sell. There are perils if you don’t.
We said on this site a two years ago that super-frosh Scottie Reynolds, after he dropped 40 on UConn (in Storrs, no less) late in the year and had an amazing Big East Tournament, should have left for the NBA. Was he polished enough for the NBA? Probably not. Was he a little soft? Probably. But his name recognition was huge. He was all over the national media, and we argued that he should have cashed in and gone to the NBA because the opportunity might not arise ever again.
Two years later, he’s still a great player on a solid Villanova squad. But all of a sudden he’s the second-best player on his team, and he isn’t glowing in the national spotlight (especially not after scoring 2 points on 1-6 shooting in the Big East semifinal the other night). Now, maybe he goes nuts in the NCAA Tournament this year and turns some heads. And maybe he gets a shot at the NBA after a stellar senior season. I still like his game, and I think he could make it in the next level. But he had the chance at making millions back in 2007, and he missed it.
So if you’re reading this, Jonny, think on it. Guaranteed cash in an economy like this? Be like Derrick. Don’t be like Scottie.