This is a late post. By the time most of you are reading this, the Pittsburgh-UConn game will likely be over. But I want to put down some of my thoughts and predictions about the game before it happens, just so I can “I told you so”:
Sam Young will be large. Again: My prediction was right last time, and I stand by it this time. UConn has nobody to match up with Sam Young. The only person who might be able to shut him down is Stanley Robinson. Keep an eye on him during the game.
DeJuan Blair won’t have a big game: Don’t get me wrong. He is, without a doubt, a better player than Hasheem Thabeet. But this time, expect Calhoun to double down on Blair. He realizes that Thabeet can’t handle him on his own. But Thabeet will have to at least stand his ground more this time around, so that the double team has time to come over.
The game will be largely decided by Pitt’s shooting: With the doubling-down on Blair and emphasis on trying to contain Sam Young, there will be plenty of open shots. If Pittsburgh hits them, the game will be a blow out.
AJ Price will have a big game: Maybe we should start calling him Big Game AJ. He reminds me a bit of Mike Bibby in the famed Sacramento Kings-Los Angeles Lakers playoff battle. Bibby was the only one on that team with the balls to say “Get on my back.” AJ Price has that same swagger.
Kemba Walker: big unknown: Don’t be surprised if he plays a large role in this game.
I will be live-twittering the game over at http://twitter.com/bigeasthoops. This is the game of the season, and if you’re not pumped up, you’re probably some weenie ACC fan.
Cracked Sidewalks: “I don’t know what to say here. I’m not sure the Bradley Center has ever been louder. And ever been more sad, as news quietly spread from person to person, that Dominic James career was likely over. … When the clock wound down, the sadness was palpable, as fans realized they’d seen the last of James on the court, what that means to him and his family, the team, and the immediate future. … Fate has been so cruel to Marquette at the end of the past few seasons. Travis Diener, Jerel McNeal, now Dominic James, cut down before they could complete the year — likely aborting a chance at a deep run in March once more.”
How can you feel anything but sadness for Marquette and Dominic James at this point? Having been doubted all year long (I’m sure Marquette fans are tired of the words: “but your last five games”), Marquette loses a close game against UConn, but more importantly, loses Dominic James. Marquette and its fans might unfortunately never be able to tell the rest of the country that they were wrong (and that Marquette is for real). I feel worst for Dominic James, who probably should have left for the NBA after his freshman or sophomore season. We, as college fans, always remind collegians of (a) the players who stayed and for whom it paid off, and (b) the players who went and made the wrong decisions. But I think to the athletes themselves, they probably think more regularly of (c) the players who didn’t go at the right time. Just a sad story around.
Villanova Viewpoint: “Nobody would wish a winless Big East slate on anyone, particularly when it hasn’t happened in 15 years. Unfortunately, the #10 Wildcats came unpleasantly close to permitting DePaul from escaping that ignoble record on Wednesday, February 25, in Rosemont, Illinois. The Wildcats were down eight at halftime and still down by one with as late as the 12:23 mark in the second half, prior to escaping Chicagoland with a far-too-suspenseful victory over woeful, winless DePaul. The Blue Demons entered the game trapped in the Hades of the Big East, with a 0-14 conference slate, 8-19 record overall.”
Question: If DePaul had won that game, would the fans rush the court? An upset the size of DePaul over Villanova is much bigger than it sounds (DePaul is a team that lost earlier this year to Northwestern to the tune of 63-36). But it would be a bit weird to storm the court, because an equally good reason (besides beating Villanova, #10 in the country) is your lone win in the Big East. And that sounds like something rather pathetic to storm the court over.
Matt’s UConn blog: “Need to mention Price again. When the senior wasn’t scoring tonight (12-for-20 from the field overall), he was screaming. After 3s, after jumpers, after big plays — he made a habit of silencing the 19,000-plus at the Bradley Center and then filling that void with a battle cry. Price is very humble when he speaks with the media, but he plays with a noticeable swagger and confidence. When he took Jerel McNeal off the dribble midway through the second half, dropping the Marquette guard to his back-side, Price made sure to look him off before nailing a 15-foot jumper from the wing. Some may call that cockiness. A New York point guard will call that necessary.”
All the press has gone to Hasheem Thabeet and how he’s a game changer. Let me tell you: if UConn didn’t have AJ Price, they would have many, many fewer victories. That said, Kemba Walker will be an absolute star at UConn in years to come.
Pitt Blather: “If you know your Pitt basketball, then you know that Pitt has never won more than two games in the NCAA Tournament. In modern parlance that has meant not getting past the Sweet 16. In the early-70s, Pitt couldn’t get past the Elite 8. … Well, Pitt Blather made it into the Elite Eight of the Pittsburgh Sports Blog Tournament. I’m not optimistic as Blather goes against the strongest #1 seed out there in Mondesi’s House.”
I’m spechless.
And last but not least…
Brilliant. Simply brilliant.
Addendum: A reader writes in to ask what would happen if Marquette and Villanova end up with identical records — who would win the tie break and receive the 1st round bye. Well, dear reader, I refer you to my seminal blog post in 2007: Big East Tiebreaker. In this case, Marquette and Villanova would have (a) equal records, and (b) equal records against each other. Now, basically, you’d have to go down the list of top teams in the Big East and see if Marquette or Villanova had a better record. It’s still too preliminary to tell what’s going on there, though — Marquette still plays Louisville and Pitt, and Pitt still plays UConn and Marquette. If Marquette can pull out a victory against Louisville and Louisville is ranked higher than Pitt at the end of the season, it looks like Marquette will win the tie break, because Marquette will have a better record against Louisville than Villanova. But honestly, it’s still too early to tell, given the rules for tiebreaking. We’ll keep you updated, though.
Not only is there a game tonight (strange, as usually only the Ivies play on Friday night — can anyone explain why there’s a game tonight?), but it might be the best game this week — Villanova goes to West Virginia.
Let’s look at the facts.
Villanova comes into the game smoking hot offensively, having scored 94 against Providence, 102 against Syracuse, and 102 against Marquette, and not surprisingly, having won all three games. Indeed, they haven’t lost since they played UConn close on January 21st. They’re ranked #13 in both the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls. Also, Big Willie Style fears them. Anything that puts fear in the heart of Big Willie puts fear into my heart.
On the other hand, West Virginia comes in ranked #7 in the country by Ken Pomeroy — above teams such as Oklahoma and Wake Forest (ranked #2 and #7 respectively by the AP), and namely above Villanova, ranked #12. They’re predicted by Pomeroy to win the rest of their games, including tonight against Villanova, their next game against Notre Dame, and their last game against Louisville (all notably at home). And Dan’l B fears them. Anything that puts fear in the heart of Dan’l B puts fear in my own heart.
What this game (and how West Virgina does for the rest of the season) represents is new school vs. old school. New school is Ken Pomeroy, Dan’l B, tempo-free statistics, favoring close losses over good teams over big wins over bad teams, and believing there’s no such thing as clutch play. Old school is Big Willie Style, watching tape, gut instincts, valuing any type of win over any type of loss, and believing that some players rise to the occasion when others do not. And New School and Old School just don’t agree on West Virginia — they don’t even get one measly vote in the AP poll, but they’re ranked 7th in the country by Ken Pomeroy.
New School vs. Old School. Who do you like tonight?
Pittsburgh has been a powerhouse in the Big East conference. Everybody in the Big East knows them and fears them. No team has been as consistently good (with the exception of perhaps UConn) in the last decade. They’ve been to the NCAAs every year since 2001-2002. We’ve seen some great Pitt players come through the ranks — Sam Young, Aaron Gray, Carl Krauser, Brandin Knight, Chris Taft, Levance Fields, Julius Page, etc.
Yet nobody in America really knows about them. And this is why Pitt fans have a chip on their shoulder.
There are two reasons for their lack of notoreity:
Pittsburgh has yet to proceed past the Sweet Sixteen.
Pittsburgh has yet to send a player to the pros who has had a successful NBA career.
Every year in the past few years could have been their year. But this year, honestly, should be their year. It was a gigantic step for Pittsburgh to be ranked #1 in the nation this season (first time ever). If they can play as they did against Notre Dame in the second half in their victory last Saturday, the whole nation will find out about them. They have incredible length, speed, and athleticism.
If Sam Young or DeJuan Blair make it big in the pros, that will help them with recruiting. And then Pittsburgh will start getting their share of McDonald’s All-Americans — and that, well…that sounds damn scary.
