Borrowing heavily from Ken Pomeroy’s breakdown on Basketball Prospectus (in other words, copy and paste), here’s a primer for the rest of the tournament with a Big East perspective. First, odds by round for each remaining squad (check out Ken’s article for perspective on how this compares to the rest):

Seed             Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
1W   UConn        72.8   37.4   24.5   15.4
1MW  Louisville   77.5   47.6   26.0   12.4
1E   Pitt         68.3   40.1   17.0    9.1
3S   Syracuse     52.2   20.8    9.7    3.7
3E   Villanova    40.8   17.2    5.1    2.0

These results should resemble those I posted at the beginning of the week. Ken used updated ratings to generate these probabilities whereas I had used the pre-tournament numbers. UConn’s huge wins greatly improved their numbers, but Pitt and Louisville each lost ground thanks to their closer calls. Nova and Cuse also both improved relative to the remaining competition.

Combining all these probabilities, I generated the net probability of various events occurring. Here you go:

Sweet Sixteen Results:
5-0    8.2%
4-1   28.7%   4+    36.9%
3-2   36.2%   3+    73.1%
2-3   20.8%   2+    93.9%
1-4    5.5%   1+    99.5%
0-5     .5%

Elite Eight wins:
4      2.1%
3     15.5%   3+    17.7%
2     36.7%   2+    54.4%
1     34.5%   1+    88.9%
0     11.1%

Final Four wins:
2     16.1%
1     50.2%   1+    83.9%
0     33.8%

Champ 42.6%

We should see 3 or 4 wins tonight and tomorrow. Anything else would be a shocker, akin to the lill shocker that Wichita State administered to Tennessee in the 2006 tournament.

Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason
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• First, an update of the Log5 probabilities:

  Team         W3   W4   W5   W6
  Louisville  .80  .50  .23  .13
  Pittsburgh  .72  .42  .23  .11
  UConn       .64  .27  .16  .09
  Syracuse    .53  .19  .08  .03
  Villanova   .36  .14  .05  .02
  
  TOTALS     3.05 1.52  .74  .36
  
  Midwest     .80  .50  .23  .13
  East       1.08  .56  .28  .12
  West        .64  .27  .16  .09
  South       .53  .19  .08  .03
  
  Max              .01  .14  .36
  

• The odds of an all-BEast Final Four were boosted from 0.57% to 1.4% thanks to Syracuse’s progress.
• For all the #1 seeds, little has changed. They each won two games as expected, and the same tough opponents remain in their future.  Louisville saw a boost from WVU’s failure to show up, and UCLA exited the East thanks to a freakishly good Villanova performance, but Michigan St. and Kansas are still in the Midwest, and Duke remains out East. UConn and Memphis have yet to be challenged for 40 minutes. They still seem destined for each other this weekend.
• Villanova and Syracuse: way to show up bigtime. Sure they did what they were supposed to do as #3 seeds, but both UCLA and Arizona St. came in as underrated on paper. Aside from Villanova’s 25 minute false start against American, both Nova and Cuse look like title contenders.
• Marquette deserves a lot of credit for ending the season pretty well after losing a floor leader in James. DJ was a shadow of a shadow of himself yesterday, but it was “nice” to see him on the floor in his last game. Mizzou looked very good much of the game but Marquette was right there at the end. I’m still trying to figure out why English got to shoot those free throws that essentially closed the door.
• WVU blew it. Yuck is all I can say. A very good team, bordering on elite, just couldn’t put it together consistently all season and played one of their worst games at the end. After they beat Pitt and took Syracuse to overtime two weeks ago, I thought they’d turned a corner. Oops.
• I like Syracuse’s chances against OU, but if Griffin carries the Sooners past them, perhaps the consolation prize would be a Pitt-OU clash. I remain convinced that Blair would surprise everyone by being Griffin’s equal head to head. I live near Dallas, TX in the heart of Big 12 country. Folks here are not just calling Griffin the best in the tournament. He’s now the best player in Big 12 history. And as the Blair-Griffin matchup goes back and forth, the game will be decided by the most underrated player in the tournament…
• Sam Young and the best pump fake Donald’s ever seen. While OSU played their best offensive half in perhaps school history, Young matched them the whole way. I can’t recall shooting as fortunate as OSU’s. Not only did they all go in, they didn’t turn it over.
• Five left, as chalk predicted, but all have looked good to great to this point. Should be another good weekend upcoming.

Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason
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(Courtesy of Ken Pomeroy’s pythagorean figures and Bill James’ Log5 formula)

Team         W1   W2   W3   W4   W5   W6
Louisville  .97  .80  .59  .37  .18  .10
Pittsburgh  .94  .72  .54  .32  .18  .09
UConn       .98  .70  .47  .22  .13  .07
WVU         .87  .54  .35  .19  .08  .04
Syracuse    .86  .46  .26  .10  .05  .02
Villanova   .87  .38  .17  .07  .03  .01
Marquette   .72  .31  .08  .03  .01  .01

TOTALS     6.20 3.91 2.46 1.31  .66  .33

Midwest    1.84 1.34  .94  .56  .26  .14
East       1.81 1.10  .70  .39  .21  .10
West       1.70 1.01  .56  .25  .14  .08
South       .86  .46  .26  .10  .05  .02

Max         .42  .01  .00  .01  .10  .33

As top overall #1 seed, Louisville was actually rewarded with a smooth path to the Elite Eight in the Midwest. Wake Forest and Utah are underwhelming #4 and #5 seeds. After that, I love how WVU is the Pomeroy favorite to meet Louisville in Indianapolis. Pomeroy puts the odds of a Big East Final Four entrant from the Midwest at 56%. I’m predicting a bit of conference cannibalism here.

Out West, UConn has a decent draw, but Marquette drew one of the best upset candidates I identified pre-tournament. Fear the Big Blue of Utah State. Missouri would also be favored over Marquette in the 2nd round. Compound that with Dominic James’ injury, and the final chapter on this season doesn’t look to be a good one. The other half of the Big East’s “infirmary region” pair, UConn, will be favored as expected through three, but Memphis will get revenge for the #1-seed decision.

Pitt’s draw is almost as kind as Louisville’s, and I love how they matchup with their likely opponents late in the regional. Villanova did not get so lucky. Another underseeded #6 seed lies in waiting. Despite the homecooking in Philly, the Bruins will prove too much.

Syracuse and Arizona St., should they meet, will be a great game. They’re so close, it could easily take six overtimes to decide it. The cool thing is, the winner will face the same level of opponent, at best, in Oklahoma. Nothing against the Sooners; they’re simply overrated. Two coin flip games, but if they both come up heads for Cuse, we should have Elite Eight teams in every region and the talk will be, “can the BEast field four of Four?” Too bad UNC will take care of that.

Unfortunately, Memphis and UNC are favorites over our best, Louisville and Pitt. It’ll be a good tournament for the Big East through the middle rounds, but neither finalist will come from here.

The “Max” line indicates the odds that the Big East takes every game they could each round. In other words, there’s a 42% chance all seven win the first one and a 33% chance the champion is ours. In between, there’s really no chance of anything aside from an all-Big East final. For kicks, Log5 puts the odds of an all-Big East Final Four at 0.57%.

Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason
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Imagine that you are constructing an ideal college basketball team. How much would you change from this description:

Start with a big who dominates the glass at both ends of floor, capably attacks the rim when he gets the ball on offense, rarely turns it over, commits few fouls, clogs the paint, and deflects or intercepts anything within arms length. Add a point guard capable of leading the nation in assists per turnover because of his superior handle and vision. And then add a wing with 3-point range who always can create his own shot, either by creating space for that jumper or blowing by his defender.

Say hello to the 2009 Pittsburgh Panthers. I find this edition of the Panthers remarkably fascinating because of the efficient use of talent here. Consider how little the skills of the Big Three overlap. None of the three have any business whatsoever replicating what their two teammates do. With so little overlap, all three players’ contributions do not take anything away from the others.

But it’s a blessing and a curse. When Sam Young is not on the floor, Pitt can struggle to score. Without DeJaun Blair, the paint suddenly opens up at both ends. And without Levance Fields running the show, the half-court offense suffers.

I like Pitt against anyone if all three generally stay on the floor. It makes Field’s “injury” something to keep an eye on. Blair and Young must avoid foul trouble. Even with those worries, I’d put this in the “good problem to have” category.

Categories: Dan'l B, Pittsburgh
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Does experience matter in the NCAA tournament? This is the third year that Ken Pomeroy has published weighted average experience. It’s still too early to count on any trends, but here’s a quick look at the top seeds from the last two tournaments (NCAA rank, school, tournament seed, experience, tournament finish):

2008

• ( 50) Kansas [1], 2.10 years: CHAMPION
• (134) Georgetown [2], 1.78: 2nd round 70-74 Davidson [10]
• (155) Tennessee [2], 1.74: Sweet Sixteen 60-79 Louisville [3]
• (197) Memphis [1], 1.61: Championship 68-75 Kansas [1] (OT)
• (205) UNC [1], 1.58: Final Four 66-84 Kansas [1]
• (229) UCLA [1], 1.51: Final Four 63-78 Memphis [1]
• (295) Duke [2], 1.22: 2nd round 67-73 WVU [7]
• (300) Texas [2], 1.19: regional final 67-85 Memphis [1]

2007

• ( 94) Wisconsin [2], 2.00: 2nd round 68-74 UNLV [7]
• (103) Florida [1], 1.97: CHAMPION
• (272) Georgetown [2], 1.35: Final Four 60-67 Ohio St. [1]
• (276) Ohio St. [1], 1.33: Championship 75-84 Florida [1]
• (287) Memphis [2], 1.27: regional final 76-92 Ohio St. [1]
• (294) UCLA [2], 1.21: Final Four 66-76 Florida [1]
• (309) Kansas [1], 1.11: regional final 55-68 UCLA [2]
• (329) UNC [1], 0.87: regional final 84-96 Georgetown [2] (OT)

Not enough data yet, and there aren’t certain patterns. My observations:

• The last two champions were experienced #1 seeds, the most experienced in fact. I think there’s something to that.
• Two of the three upsets were experienced #2 seeds, not that such teams are prone to early exits; it refutes the idea that experience makes you upset-resistant.
• There were 10 games played between #1 and #2 seeds in these two tournaments. The more experienced teams were 9-1 in such games. Take that with a grain of salt.

It’s worth looking at the top contenders this year and their experience levels. Here’s Joe Lunardi’s current #1, #2, and #3 seeds, which should capture nearly all of the #1 and #2 seeds in a month:

• ( 8 ) Marquette [3], 2.47
• ( 31) UConn [1], 2.20
• ( 78) UNC [1], 1.97
• (108) Pittsburgh [1], 1.88
• (115) Memphis [3], 1.85
• (146) Oklahoma [1], 1.75
• (148) Duke [2], 1.74
• (159) Louisville [2], 1.70
• (181) Clemson [3], 1.63
• (189) Michigan St. [2], 1.61
• (274) Wake Forest [2], 1.31
• (336) Kansas [3], 0.84

Compared to the last couple years when dominant freshman carried several teams to top seeds, most contenders are very experienced. I love seeing several Big East schools at the top.

Don’t hate me for my lists.

Categories: Commentary, Connecticut, Dan'l B, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh
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