Bracket Breakdown (Big East Edition)
March 26, 2009 10:18 am by Dan'l BBorrowing heavily from Ken Pomeroy’s breakdown on Basketball Prospectus (in other words, copy and paste), here’s a primer for the rest of the tournament with a Big East perspective. First, odds by round for each remaining squad (check out Ken’s article for perspective on how this compares to the rest):
Seed Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1W UConn 72.8 37.4 24.5 15.4 1MW Louisville 77.5 47.6 26.0 12.4 1E Pitt 68.3 40.1 17.0 9.1 3S Syracuse 52.2 20.8 9.7 3.7 3E Villanova 40.8 17.2 5.1 2.0
These results should resemble those I posted at the beginning of the week. Ken used updated ratings to generate these probabilities whereas I had used the pre-tournament numbers. UConn’s huge wins greatly improved their numbers, but Pitt and Louisville each lost ground thanks to their closer calls. Nova and Cuse also both improved relative to the remaining competition.
Combining all these probabilities, I generated the net probability of various events occurring. Here you go:
Sweet Sixteen Results: 5-0 8.2% 4-1 28.7% 4+ 36.9% 3-2 36.2% 3+ 73.1% 2-3 20.8% 2+ 93.9% 1-4 5.5% 1+ 99.5% 0-5 .5% Elite Eight wins: 4 2.1% 3 15.5% 3+ 17.7% 2 36.7% 2+ 54.4% 1 34.5% 1+ 88.9% 0 11.1% Final Four wins: 2 16.1% 1 50.2% 1+ 83.9% 0 33.8% Champ 42.6%
We should see 3 or 4 wins tonight and tomorrow. Anything else would be a shocker, akin to the lill shocker that Wichita State administered to Tennessee in the 2006 tournament.
Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason
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2 Responses to “Bracket Breakdown (Big East Edition)”
Last night, the Big East essentially went 4-0. Thank you Levance Fields.
Here’s the revised primer:
Obvoiusly having 4 of the final 8 teams is indication that the Big East is once again the Beast! Nova is the biggest surprise although off Jay Wright’s previous tourney history they shouldn’t be. Nova is always ready and plays its best game every year in the NCAA’s. SU ran into a cold shooting night and was routed by Blake Griffin (best player in the US) abd Oklahoma. UConn continues to play well, getting by Purdue even when having a less than usual shooting performance. Louisville looks very dominant with by far the easiest road to Detroit. The Cards had a fairly easy league schedule and then the easiest draw in the BET. Now they are steamrolling through the easiest bracket. But I believe that they would be doing this well in any bracket right now. Pitt continues to play with fire and wait for Levance Fields to bail them out at the end of every game. I see Pitt and Louisville in the final 4. With Carolina edging the Cards in the championship game.