• First, an update of the Log5 probabilities:

  Team         W3   W4   W5   W6
  Louisville  .80  .50  .23  .13
  Pittsburgh  .72  .42  .23  .11
  UConn       .64  .27  .16  .09
  Syracuse    .53  .19  .08  .03
  Villanova   .36  .14  .05  .02
  
  TOTALS     3.05 1.52  .74  .36
  
  Midwest     .80  .50  .23  .13
  East       1.08  .56  .28  .12
  West        .64  .27  .16  .09
  South       .53  .19  .08  .03
  
  Max              .01  .14  .36
  

• The odds of an all-BEast Final Four were boosted from 0.57% to 1.4% thanks to Syracuse’s progress.
• For all the #1 seeds, little has changed. They each won two games as expected, and the same tough opponents remain in their future.  Louisville saw a boost from WVU’s failure to show up, and UCLA exited the East thanks to a freakishly good Villanova performance, but Michigan St. and Kansas are still in the Midwest, and Duke remains out East. UConn and Memphis have yet to be challenged for 40 minutes. They still seem destined for each other this weekend.
• Villanova and Syracuse: way to show up bigtime. Sure they did what they were supposed to do as #3 seeds, but both UCLA and Arizona St. came in as underrated on paper. Aside from Villanova’s 25 minute false start against American, both Nova and Cuse look like title contenders.
• Marquette deserves a lot of credit for ending the season pretty well after losing a floor leader in James. DJ was a shadow of a shadow of himself yesterday, but it was “nice” to see him on the floor in his last game. Mizzou looked very good much of the game but Marquette was right there at the end. I’m still trying to figure out why English got to shoot those free throws that essentially closed the door.
• WVU blew it. Yuck is all I can say. A very good team, bordering on elite, just couldn’t put it together consistently all season and played one of their worst games at the end. After they beat Pitt and took Syracuse to overtime two weeks ago, I thought they’d turned a corner. Oops.
• I like Syracuse’s chances against OU, but if Griffin carries the Sooners past them, perhaps the consolation prize would be a Pitt-OU clash. I remain convinced that Blair would surprise everyone by being Griffin’s equal head to head. I live near Dallas, TX in the heart of Big 12 country. Folks here are not just calling Griffin the best in the tournament. He’s now the best player in Big 12 history. And as the Blair-Griffin matchup goes back and forth, the game will be decided by the most underrated player in the tournament…
• Sam Young and the best pump fake Donald’s ever seen. While OSU played their best offensive half in perhaps school history, Young matched them the whole way. I can’t recall shooting as fortunate as OSU’s. Not only did they all go in, they didn’t turn it over.
• Five left, as chalk predicted, but all have looked good to great to this point. Should be another good weekend upcoming.

Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason
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