(Courtesy of Ken Pomeroy’s pythagorean figures and Bill James’ Log5 formula)

Team         W1   W2   W3   W4   W5   W6
Louisville  .97  .80  .59  .37  .18  .10
Pittsburgh  .94  .72  .54  .32  .18  .09
UConn       .98  .70  .47  .22  .13  .07
WVU         .87  .54  .35  .19  .08  .04
Syracuse    .86  .46  .26  .10  .05  .02
Villanova   .87  .38  .17  .07  .03  .01
Marquette   .72  .31  .08  .03  .01  .01

TOTALS     6.20 3.91 2.46 1.31  .66  .33

Midwest    1.84 1.34  .94  .56  .26  .14
East       1.81 1.10  .70  .39  .21  .10
West       1.70 1.01  .56  .25  .14  .08
South       .86  .46  .26  .10  .05  .02

Max         .42  .01  .00  .01  .10  .33

As top overall #1 seed, Louisville was actually rewarded with a smooth path to the Elite Eight in the Midwest. Wake Forest and Utah are underwhelming #4 and #5 seeds. After that, I love how WVU is the Pomeroy favorite to meet Louisville in Indianapolis. Pomeroy puts the odds of a Big East Final Four entrant from the Midwest at 56%. I’m predicting a bit of conference cannibalism here.

Out West, UConn has a decent draw, but Marquette drew one of the best upset candidates I identified pre-tournament. Fear the Big Blue of Utah State. Missouri would also be favored over Marquette in the 2nd round. Compound that with Dominic James’ injury, and the final chapter on this season doesn’t look to be a good one. The other half of the Big East’s “infirmary region” pair, UConn, will be favored as expected through three, but Memphis will get revenge for the #1-seed decision.

Pitt’s draw is almost as kind as Louisville’s, and I love how they matchup with their likely opponents late in the regional. Villanova did not get so lucky. Another underseeded #6 seed lies in waiting. Despite the homecooking in Philly, the Bruins will prove too much.

Syracuse and Arizona St., should they meet, will be a great game. They’re so close, it could easily take six overtimes to decide it. The cool thing is, the winner will face the same level of opponent, at best, in Oklahoma. Nothing against the Sooners; they’re simply overrated. Two coin flip games, but if they both come up heads for Cuse, we should have Elite Eight teams in every region and the talk will be, “can the BEast field four of Four?” Too bad UNC will take care of that.

Unfortunately, Memphis and UNC are favorites over our best, Louisville and Pitt. It’ll be a good tournament for the Big East through the middle rounds, but neither finalist will come from here.

The “Max” line indicates the odds that the Big East takes every game they could each round. In other words, there’s a 42% chance all seven win the first one and a 33% chance the champion is ours. In between, there’s really no chance of anything aside from an all-Big East final. For kicks, Log5 puts the odds of an all-Big East Final Four at 0.57%.

Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason
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