Does experience matter in the NCAA tournament? This is the third year that Ken Pomeroy has published weighted average experience. It’s still too early to count on any trends, but here’s a quick look at the top seeds from the last two tournaments (NCAA rank, school, tournament seed, experience, tournament finish):

2008

• ( 50) Kansas [1], 2.10 years: CHAMPION
• (134) Georgetown [2], 1.78: 2nd round 70-74 Davidson [10]
• (155) Tennessee [2], 1.74: Sweet Sixteen 60-79 Louisville [3]
• (197) Memphis [1], 1.61: Championship 68-75 Kansas [1] (OT)
• (205) UNC [1], 1.58: Final Four 66-84 Kansas [1]
• (229) UCLA [1], 1.51: Final Four 63-78 Memphis [1]
• (295) Duke [2], 1.22: 2nd round 67-73 WVU [7]
• (300) Texas [2], 1.19: regional final 67-85 Memphis [1]

2007

• ( 94) Wisconsin [2], 2.00: 2nd round 68-74 UNLV [7]
• (103) Florida [1], 1.97: CHAMPION
• (272) Georgetown [2], 1.35: Final Four 60-67 Ohio St. [1]
• (276) Ohio St. [1], 1.33: Championship 75-84 Florida [1]
• (287) Memphis [2], 1.27: regional final 76-92 Ohio St. [1]
• (294) UCLA [2], 1.21: Final Four 66-76 Florida [1]
• (309) Kansas [1], 1.11: regional final 55-68 UCLA [2]
• (329) UNC [1], 0.87: regional final 84-96 Georgetown [2] (OT)

Not enough data yet, and there aren’t certain patterns. My observations:

• The last two champions were experienced #1 seeds, the most experienced in fact. I think there’s something to that.
• Two of the three upsets were experienced #2 seeds, not that such teams are prone to early exits; it refutes the idea that experience makes you upset-resistant.
• There were 10 games played between #1 and #2 seeds in these two tournaments. The more experienced teams were 9-1 in such games. Take that with a grain of salt.

It’s worth looking at the top contenders this year and their experience levels. Here’s Joe Lunardi’s current #1, #2, and #3 seeds, which should capture nearly all of the #1 and #2 seeds in a month:

• ( 8 ) Marquette [3], 2.47
• ( 31) UConn [1], 2.20
• ( 78) UNC [1], 1.97
• (108) Pittsburgh [1], 1.88
• (115) Memphis [3], 1.85
• (146) Oklahoma [1], 1.75
• (148) Duke [2], 1.74
• (159) Louisville [2], 1.70
• (181) Clemson [3], 1.63
• (189) Michigan St. [2], 1.61
• (274) Wake Forest [2], 1.31
• (336) Kansas [3], 0.84

Compared to the last couple years when dominant freshman carried several teams to top seeds, most contenders are very experienced. I love seeing several Big East schools at the top.

Don’t hate me for my lists.

Categories: Commentary, Connecticut, Dan'l B, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh
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