The bubble analogy is at best acceptable. I wouldn’t miss it when something else takes its place. If soap has to be involved, I’d rather picture cagers trying to climb a slope doused in soap than see them as either (1) a bubble itself, (2) sitting “on a bubble,” or (3) trying to keep a bubble from floating into something sharp. The slope evokes how difficult it can be to climb up and how easily one can fall back or out of it.

I’m nervous about the Big East.

Pittsburgh might have the right kind of profile to be snubbed. There’s nothing EVER wrong with beating Duke (Thank you again and again Mr. Maynor, too) - should Wake and Miami dance? - but that can’t be the only bullet point for Pitt to lean on. There’s other good wins, but they’re at home. The road/neutral record is reasonable at 5-6. I’d give them credit for “tough” losses at Marquette and Notre Dame if they’d kept those close. The real danger is if Pitt drops one of their remaining home games. I don’t particularly like their chances at Syracuse or WVU, so a flat performance against Cincinnati or DePaul could easily spell doom in the form of an 8-10 conference record and a 1-6 record to close the season. Even at 9-9, Pitt needs to show something in New York.

West Virginia should have an easier time of it - the stacked schedule is all but gone, leaving three games where they should be favored and a 4th in which close-game karma ought to swing back their way (against UConn). They should come out 11-7, with the superficially impressive 6-2 closing mark. I like their chances a lot better than Pitt’s.

Syracuse has lots of climbing to do (or, if you prefer bubbles, a Kentucky-borne breeze pushed their gossamer sphere awfully close to the dreaded thorn bush today). Their last chance to post a solid road win has come and gone. I think they can defend the dome against Pitt, but it’ll be close. Ditto for Seton Hall on the road and certainly Marquette. Even if they claw back to 9-9, the profile looks suspiciously similar to (and perhaps even worse given the disparity in conference records) last year - nothing good to speak of outside the Carrier Dome. One win against likely tournament teams. It’s just about necessary to run the table.

Villanova has exactly what it needs to have a chance - some momentum already building and a couple marquee matchups coming up. The Big East’s hottest teams are on deck and in the hole. Both Marquette and Louisville have been rolling for some time. Should Nova take one or especially both games, they look completely different. I like their chances to sneak up on one of the big boys in the next week. If they can carry that into a 10-8 finish, it’ll complete their own 6-2 finish to the season.

And that’s about it. I predict seven for the Big East - Syracuse will be left out this year (rightfully this time), West Virginia will cruise in and make me proud by upsetting somebody big, and Villanova will take Pitt’s place (they split a home-and-home this year in case you’re wondering). Cincinnati and Seton Hall, better luck next year.

Categories: Dan'l B, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Postseason