It’s a new year, so it’s more than high time–there’s a theme going today–for me to stat updating BigEastology. I’m not going to pretend that I’m contributing something as good as or better than well known computer-based rankings, but it has a purpose for me. I can nearly match the results posted elsewhere, and calculating the rankings allows me to revisit rankings at earlier times in the season. Late in the year this year, I plan on providing capsules for each BEast team that show how they either progressed or regressed through the year.

I’ve posted BigEastology through last night’s tilts–again, don’t look for anything special or new here. I’m interested in exploring the most over- and underrated schools across the country from this perspective.

Overrated

1. Vanderbilt. All that matters is wins, right? 15-0 looks very shiny in early January. They’re #15 in both polls and they’ll probably be higher Monday, but their quality of play translates to about #60 in the country. That won’t get it done over the next 16 conference games. I see a 3rd or 4th place finish in their division at 9-7 or 8-8, then an early exit in March for a higher than justified seed at 23-8 or 24-7.
2. Washington St. Another undefeated team? Yep. #4 in the country? Yeesh. They’re barely among the four best in the Pac-10. Wash. St. sits at #22 on my list, with UCLA far ahead and six Pac-10 teams between #23 and #45. There’s a reason all of the computer ratings systems have the Pac-10 as the top conference right now–depth. State got the 2nd worst, Washington, out of the way, but I can’t see them maintaining a conference record worthy of that #4 ranking into March. 11-7 or 12-6 is the more likely outcome, with a more appropriate seed around four or five in the Tournament.
3. Villanova. Sorry to say it, but Big Willie Style nailed it before the season. They’re playing in the 9th to 11th range among BEast teams. #16 in the country? #80 is more likely. Villanova will do very well to win 8 in conference, but 7-11 is most likely, sending Scottie and company to the NIT. Last year’s success and Scottie’s return blinded pundits from seeing the full picture here. Let’s be proud that the Wildcats are the only Big East representative on this list.
4. Dayton. Another mediocre school getting top-25 status in the polls. I see Dayton around #55 in the country, and about 5th in the A-10. Unlike the BEast however, the A-10 is weak enough for Dayton to win 10 of 16 and roll up a 22-7 record. They’re not much better than the middle of the BEast and only a bit better than Villanova, but there might be enough to get them into the NCAAs. Thems the breaks.
5. Boston College and NC State. Chalk this up to ACC love. Both schools got several votes in the ESPN/USA Today poll. Well they’re two of the three worst ACC teams so far on BigEastology. Ken Pomeroy agrees. Jeff Sagarin’s PREDICTOR agrees. Both are 10-3 today, but that +7 against .500 will have evaporated two months from now. Perhaps some of the pollsters need to find a way to fit five ACC teams into their ballots no matter what. Fortunately for the rest of the country, it’s a down year for the ACC. Duke and UNC are elite, Clemson is very good, and the rest is pretty ugly.

Underrated

1. Xavier. A couple December losses stand between Xavier and some love. Not one vote in the E/U poll? They’re obliterating people–one of the best signs of dominance looking forward is the ability to blowout your opponents. Well, Xavier just beat Kansas St., #52 in BEO, by 26, then beat Virginia, #74, by 38. Those are two of five double-digit wins against the top 100. UNC has six such wins. Kansas has two. Duke? Three. Seems to me, Xavier belongs much higher, and I have them #7.
2. West Virginia. The Mountaineers need a couple quality wins, and the only bad loss in my mind is the semi-home game against Oklahoma. Like Duke, they have three double-digit wins against the top 100. It’s time to prove they’re among the Big East’s best, and if they do, the recognition will be there.
3. Notre Dame, Duquesne, and Drake. All three are around #15-20 here but have zero votes in the polls. ND has lost twice by a combined five points–both back in November. Their first two shots in the Big East were quality home wins. I think the Irish are Big East royalty this year, and will rise to top-15. Duquesne (and Xavier) would be a good choice for early recognition in the Atlantic 10, but it’s Rhode Island with a ranking. Duquesne has dominated 10 and lost to three top-25 schools. Drake is currently the best of the MVC with only one loss against St. Mary’s, who just happens to be ranked. There are only three cupcakes on the schedule so far and they’ve beaten SIU and Wichita St. in conference play. Look for 14-4 in the MVC and a decent NCAA seed.

Categories: Rankings, Dan'l B