And they got in at the expense of the ACC. Could this possibly be any sweeter? I only caught the last 12 minutes of regulation and overtime, but what I saw was incredibly impressive. In the last 3 minutes of regulation and OT, Georgetown simply beat down on the Tar Heels. UNC is a very good team, and the Hoyas made them look bad. After North Carolina scored 50 by halftime (G’town only gives up 57 PPG), UNC scored 32 over the last 25 minutes. By that stat alone, the second half of this game was clearly a Big East controlled contest. One final point, before I let everyone else chip in; How nice is it to see McDonald’s All-Americans consistently get burned by back door cuts? I love it. So good luck next Staurday against Ohio State, and congrats again G’town fans. I think the Hoyas are good enough to win it all, and I hope they can do it.

More links from across the Big East landscape:

• Highlights: Courtesy of Hoya Prospectus. I love Sapp faking the crap out of Hansborough.
• Hoya Saxa: Recap, boxscore, and links…
• A nod to Jeff Green, and a shudder about the future: Cuse Country admits that Jeff Green was indeed deserving of the Big East player of the year, mentions that G’town could be the new sheriff in the Big East, and that the ACC has missed out on the last two Final Fours.
• Not traveling after all: Of course this no longer matters, but Jeff Green’s winning shot on Saturday might not have been a travel after all. Great link that The Van Buren Boys find — an officiating forum where the word is that it either wasn’t blatantly as bad a travel as many have thought, or that it wasn’t a travel at all. Great suggestion that CBS bring in a retired referee instead of having Seth Davis talk out of his ass.

Categories: Big Willie Style, Commentary, Postseason
2 Comments »

This is an unfortunate year. I have not seen one single Sweet Sixteen game in its entirety, nor will I see any Elite Eight game. Each game slot coincides with either driving, flying, or attending a wedding. I don’t mind so much — the matchups have not been so compelling — Florida vs. Butler? UNC vs. USC? Georgetown vs. Vandy? Oregon vs. UNLV? But all of the games have been really closes, so I know I’m missing out.

Last night while driving from Dallas to Houston I listened to the Georgetown-Vanderbilt game. Congratulations to all Georgetown fans. All of the Big East is happy for you guys — it’s been quite a while since you’ve been in the Elite Eight. So Hoya Saxa and all that jazz. A few notes on the game and this weekend’s past games:

• Forward/Center: Did that play that Georgetown run at the end of the Vanderbilt game look familiar? Watch it again here. Now look at this play (just endure through Jim Nantz talking your head off for a while — the actual play is around 2:50). Yup, they’re the same. Again, I have to give major props to Jon Solomon over at princetonbasketball.com, who gives the truly inside story to the end of the game.
• Difference between Sweet 16 and Elite 8: Chris Dokish over at Panther Rants breaks it down — the teams that won are the teams with Top 50 recruit talent (and the ones who lost had less Top 50 recruit talent). Of course, he goes on to say that this is why Pitt hasn’t moved on to the higher heights. Honestly? Sounds like sour milk to me.

I’m just glad as a fan that we have a Georgetown-UNC matchup to watch on Sunday. To me, this is easily the most compelling game of the tournament. It’s not the fact that both programs are storied and classic basketball powerhouses. It’s more that we’re looking at two very fundamentally different teams, but both with very good athletes. Can’t wait to (not) watch this game. Sigh.

Categories: Commentary, donald, Georgetown
2 Comments »

Some of us were packing his bags for him while others saw things more reasonably. It looks like Scottie’s back for another year as discussed on Let’sGoNova. Apparently one of the implications of Reynolds staying might be transfers. There’s just not enough minutes to go around.

The Wildcats are simply too talented and young to not see improvement from this year to next. They also appear to be “underachievers” after losing their share of close games and playing one of the tougher schedules in America. With Reynolds back, they’ve got to be a favorite next year.

For Scottie personally, time will tell if his decision pays off. Perhaps he’s already gotten a strong indication that he was bound for the second round at best.

Categories: BlogWatch, Dan'l B, Villanova
1 Comment »

Log5 analysis of future contests is nothing new, but I haven’t seen it applied to the standard debate about conference performance. I applied the technique to the tournament and summed expected wins for each conference on 3/13 — in other words, before the first tip — and today through two rounds. Here are the results:

Conf  #  W-L  Chalk  3/13  3/20  Delta  Champ
P10   6  7-3    9     5.9   8.9   3.0     3%
SEC   5  7-2    7     7.3   9.5   2.2    14%
MWC   2  2-1    2      .8   2.4   1.7     0%
Horz  2  2-1    1     1.1   2.3   1.1     0%
CUSA  1  2-0    3     2.0   2.6    .6     2%
B12   4  5-2    8     8.0   8.5    .5    29%
WAC   2  1-2    1      .7   1.0    .3     0%
BSth  1  1-1    0      .7   1.0    .3     0%
SWAC  1  0-1    0      .0    .0    .0     0%
OVC   1  0-1    0      .0    .0    .0     0%
MAAC  1  0-1    0      .0    .0    .0     0%
NEC   1  0-1    0      .0    .0    .0     0%
SB    1  0-1    0      .0    .0    .0     0%
BSky  1  0-1    0      .1    .0   -.1     0%
MVC   2  2-1    2     2.3   2.2   -.1     0%
Ivy   1  0-1    0      .2    .0   -.2     0%
CAA   2  1-2    0     1.2   1.0   -.2     0%
ASun  1  0-1    0      .2    .0   -.2     0%
Slnd  1  0-1    0      .3    .0   -.3     0%
B10   6  6-5    8     7.5   7.2   -.3     4%
MAC   1  0-1    0      .3    .0   -.3     0%
BE    6  5-4    8     6.9   6.5   -.4     3%
AE    1  0-1    0      .4    .0   -.4     0%
BW    1  0-1    0      .4    .0   -.4     0%
Pat   1  0-1    0      .4    .0   -.4     0%
MCon  1  0-1    0      .6    .0   -.6     0%
SC    1  0-1    0      .7    .0   -.7     0%
A10   2  1-2    0     1.9   1.0   -.9     0%
WCC   1  0-1    0      .9    .0   -.9     0%
ACC   7  6-6   11    12.1   8.8  -3.2    44%

Terms:

• Conf, #, and W/L — conference, teams, and tournament record.
• Chalk — expected wins based on seeding. Final Four games are ignored (since they’d be between #1 seeds), so there’s only 60 chalk wins available.
• 3/13 — expected wins based on log5 projections before the tournament started.
• 3/20 — expected wins based on log5 projections after two rounds.
• Delta — Change in log5 projection through two rounds.
• Champ — Odds of producing the champion as of 3/20.

The successful conferences are surprising in my eyes. The Pac10 and SEC have clearly done the best — I don’t have to tell you that — and are the only conferences with three teams alive. The Pac10 has already exceeded its log5 expectations, so every win is gravy from here out. UNLV and Butler have represented the Mountain West and Horizon very well. It will be a successful tournament for Memphis if they get one more win.

The Big East suffered too many 1st round defeats and needs Pittsburgh to pick up for everybody else. Victory over UCLA drastically changes these numbers. Georgetown’s favored fairly comfortably to advance one more time before the probably UNC battle. It’s been a bit disappointing for the BEast this year, but it’s not a disaster.

The ACC stands alone as the only notable conference to severely underperform. They deserve some credit for having the bar set so high, but you can’t help but feel that they were overrated by both the committee and my numbers. Still UNC remains as the most likely to win the whole thing (if you can rationalize the rest of this paragraph).

Besides UNC’s 44% odds, the next three contenders for the title are Kansas (21%), Florida (13%), and Texas A&M (8%). Not surprisingly, they are the four teams I predicted would make the final four in my Yahoo! group picks.

I’ll be paying the most attention to Memphis-A&M, where I think A&M will prove superior in San Antonio, Oregon-UNLV, hoping for an upset, and Pitt-UCLA, where with any luck the protege will get the better of his mentor for once in this tournament. (In other words, it’s not looking too good Panther fans.)

Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason, Rankings
9 Comments »

It has been brought to our attention that we have been hard on Marquette all year. Admittedly, we have, but we’ve also been truthful. I personally believe they are going to be a much better team next year. And I know the injury to McNeal was a killer. If Georgetown lost Hibbert or Green, their chances of advancing in either tournament would have been diminished as well.

However, we have been right on with Marquette all season long. We accurately predicted Providence to defeat Marquette to open the Big East, we accurately predicted Marquette to go to Pittsburgh and win. Their stretch mid season was very nice, and then we accurately predicted them lose to Notre Dame and then to defeat Pitt once again. Then we accurately predicted them to defeat St. John’s and then lose to Pitt and Michigan State.

Look, this year’s Marquette team was a great team to watch. I love their intensity, and I think Tom Crean is a great, great coach. However, much like the ‘05 version of Villanova, the ‘03 version of UConn and the ‘95 version of Georgetown, this team is young, and they didn’t have the experience or ability to do serious damage in either tournament.

Next year, I believe they will be much, much better, and more consistant. Between, Marquette, Louisville and Georgetown, the Big East will be very strong at the top next season. We wish Marquette would have done better because they are so enjoyable to watch, but injuries do happen, and like I said before, we haven’t been ragging on Marquette because we don’t like them, it’s just a simple fact that we were right about them all year. And hopefully, we’re right about them being fantastic next year.

Categories: Commentary
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