Comments on: Conference Perspective (the ACC sucks!) http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/ Bloggin' Big East basketball since way back (2006). Tue, 06 Jan 2009 13:09:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Dan'l B http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-906 Dan'l B Fri, 23 Mar 2007 01:23:10 +0000 http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-906 That was way below the belt jackass. That was way below the belt jackass.

]]> By: Big Willie Style http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-900 Big Willie Style Thu, 22 Mar 2007 16:46:45 +0000 http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-900 For example, the Heat proved they were much better than the Mavs, and that was justified by a 7 game series. (= For example, the Heat proved they were much better than the Mavs, and that was justified by a 7 game series. (=

]]> By: Dan'l B http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-897 Dan'l B Thu, 22 Mar 2007 10:51:20 +0000 http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-897 I have UNC rated a lot higher than they are most other places, and I suspect that I'm wrong about them. Over four future games that extra difference adds up to the 44% chance I give them and takes a lot away from the others. My opinion is that log5 has some inaccuracies with the NCAAs because 1-game series make huge swings probable. It's better suited for the professional playoff systems in MLB or the NBA. I have UNC rated a lot higher than they are most other places, and I suspect that I’m wrong about them. Over four future games that extra difference adds up to the 44% chance I give them and takes a lot away from the others.

My opinion is that log5 has some inaccuracies with the NCAAs because 1-game series make huge swings probable. It’s better suited for the professional playoff systems in MLB or the NBA.

]]> By: Dan'l B http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-896 Dan'l B Thu, 22 Mar 2007 10:47:13 +0000 http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-896 The log5 tables published on kenpom.com are based on win percentages derived from his adjusted ratings rather than raw win percentages. There are differences in the ratings here that have translated into different win percentages and slight differences in each teams' probabilities. The biggest reason for a difference between my system and others is that I weigh each game based on how recently they were played. The weights gradually decrease backwards through the season -- games in early November have about 20% of the impact on the ratings that games in March have. The log5 tables published on kenpom.com are based on win percentages derived from his adjusted ratings rather than raw win percentages. There are differences in the ratings here that have translated into different win percentages and slight differences in each teams’ probabilities.

The biggest reason for a difference between my system and others is that I weigh each game based on how recently they were played. The weights gradually decrease backwards through the season — games in early November have about 20% of the impact on the ratings that games in March have.

]]> By: Pete http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-894 Pete Thu, 22 Mar 2007 01:12:44 +0000 http://www.bigeasthoops.com/2007/03/20/conference-perspective/#comment-894 Maybe I don't fully understand what Log5 is, but I thought it simply took its source data from win percentage? Maybe I don’t fully understand what Log5 is, but I thought it simply took its source data from win percentage?

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