All ratings are updated, so who got underrated and overrated? Left out? Why does the RPI suck so much?

Let’s start with the last question. A common, silly refrain in NCAA land is that teams have “breakthrough seasons” such as Notre Dame’s fine improvement over last year. They went 16-14 in 2006 and were 1-8 in the Big East at one point. So you’d think that the ‘06-’07 version of the Irish made huge strides on the way to 24-7 and 11-5. But was there a huge influx of talent and no senior departures? Luke Harangody deserves a lot of credit and Tory Jackson’s been effective since McAlarney made it onto this blog’s banner, but those two players are not nearly as good as Quinn and Francis were last year. I’d argue that the overall team talent is roughly the same after accounting for the rest of the guys maturing one year.

The RPI sucks because it focuses on achievement — namely wins — and will miss wildly on teams that lose lots of close games. In other words, have piss-poor luck. Anyone paying even marginal attention to the Irish last season remembers the ridiculous number of 1-possession and overtime losses. Notre Dame’s RPI went from #95 to #31 between seasons even though their performance quality is very nearly the same. Performance systems such as BigEastology here and, more importantly, Ken Pomeroy’s and Jeff Sagarin’s systems are much smarter at recognizing how teams perform. Pomeroy’s 2006 Irish were ranked #27, not far from their #17 rank in 2007.

Oregon is a better example. They were 15-18 last year and lost a similar number of close games. Since then, their RPI went from #147 to #21 in one year. Pomeroy ranks? #36 and #21. Like Notre Dame, the incoming talent did not outweigh departures, and I’m convinced that Pomeroy has a much more accurate impression of their quality both years.

The Snubbed:

• #20 Mississippi St. — That 18-13 record killed a perfectly good season. Thank you RPI (64). They weren’t as unlucky as the Irish and Ducks last year, but a little bit better luck was all they needed to get recognized. The team does not depend on seniors, so look for them to roll in the NIT and be a “surprise” next year.
• #25 Syracuse — Ahh yes, performance ratings like the Orange just fine. The RPI (50) must have had a lot to do with their fate.
• #28 Kansas St. — Interesting, yet another popular snub is supported by my methods (and Pomeroy, and Sagarin, etc.). I’m sure Bob Knight is giving Huggins hell at every opportunity. RPI? 56.
• #30 Missouri St. — the first obvious mid-major snub. Of note, they finished 8-3 with all three losses against NCAA tournament teams seeded #11 or better (at-large quality) — SIU, Winthrop, and Creighton. RPI? 36. Odd, that’s still decent.
• #32 West Virginia — Everything we’ve said and heard about the Big East getting snubbed is justified in my opinion, and I blame the RPI of course. For whatever reason, most Big East teams had depressed RPIs this year, so they sunk as a group. RPI? 57.

Overrated and underrated? They add up to the most likely upsets (by seeds #11 or worse):

Note: for the first round, I give home-court advantage to the big underdogs because the crowd almost always leans their way.

• #11 George Washington over #6 Vanderbilt. On a neutral court, Vandy enjoys a 5-point advantage, but give GW a home-court nudge and it should be a close one. Vegas favors Vanderbilt by 3.
• #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame. The Irish better have their sights squarely on this game as Winthrop is not a pushover. ND is about 6 points better on paper.
• #12 Arkansas over #5 USC. If its neutral, USC is favored by…actually Arkansas by 2. A perfect testament to how overrated the Pac 10 is. Vegas has USC by 1.5.
• #12 ODU over #5 Butler. Butler enjoys a 4-point advantage in quality, which would be offset exactly if the crowd pulls strongly for ODU. Vegas favors Butler by 1.
• #12 Illinois over #5 VT. VT is 2-3 points better on paper and Vegas likes ‘em by 2.5. I don’t think the crowd will see Illinois as a Cinderella, but it’s already close anyway.
• #13 Davidson over #4 Maryland. Maryland’s much better — 7 or 8 points — but for a #13 to be that close is a good start. Maryland is favored by 7.
• #13 Holy Cross over #4 Southern Illinois. The difference between them is about the same as MD and Davidson, and the line is the same.
• #14 Oral Roberts over #3 Washington St. The line is only 6.5 on this one for good reason. Washington St. has struggled lately, and I like Oral’s makeup tremendously.
• #15 Texas A&M Corpus Christi over #2 Wisconsin. Here’s the upset special. Texas A&M has all the right characteristics. They’re senior-laden (5 senior starters and the bench will be 2 juniors and another senior) and have had a short bench all season. Their best players are 7′ 0″ Chris Daniels and the senior backcourt of Ervin and Washington. Ervin is a solid point guard if he doesn’t turn it over, and Washington is one of the best offensive players in the country, particularly from downtown (89/187 = 47.6%). The achilles heel has been turnovers, and Wisconsin is not an exceptional TO generator. Wisconsin is a 13-point favorite.

My gut likes Arkansas, ODU, Illinois, and Texas A&M-CC to pull it off.

Categories: Rankings, Dan'l B, Postseason