Tourney picking is sort of like stock-picking. There’s a fixed strategy (in stocks, picking the indexes) that will let you beat 2/3 of the hand-picked strategies. That fixed strategy, of course, is just to pick the higher seeds.

Of course, I don’t care about being above-average in NCAAs. I’d just like to brag one year that I got everything right. Whereas in stocks, being “merely” above-average is fine by me. That’s why I still make insanely crazy picks, like Nova over G’town.