Last month, I boldly predicted that 9 beasts would earn NCAA tournament bids. Backing off from that prediction would be reasonable yet unforgivable, so what will it take to get there?

Pittsburgh, Georgetown, and Marquette (100% confidence)

• Pitt doesn’t have any elite wins out of conference, but they’ve handled a tougher Big East start very well and are the class of the conference. The schedule will be harsh, so I foresee a 25-6 record (12-4 Big East) and a #2-3 seed depending on how the Big East tournament goes.
• Georgetown started slow but has roared to the front in 2007. Their conference schedule only gets easier. They’ll be a cut behind Pitt at 21-8 (11-5) and a #3-4.
• Marquette had a huge neutral-site win over Duke in November, and the Wisconsin loss is totally acceptable. They own the only conference win over Pittsburgh and are well on their way to 10+ wins in conference. Similar to Georgetown, look for a 24-7 (11-5) finish and a #4 seed.

Notre Dame, Villanova, and West Virginia (95%)

• Notre Dame built an excellent out of conference record and started well in conference. How they respond to McAlarney’s suspension dictates the outcome, and I strongly believe they’ll move past it. Notre Dame’s exceptional start will translate to 22-7 (10-6) and a #5-6 seed.
• Villanova is only .500 so far in conference, but they have many things going for them including several solid out of conference wins (Iowa, Okla., and Texas to name a few), an excellent win at Georgetown, and an easier conference schedule the rest of the season. I see 22-8 (10-6) in their future, good for a #6-7 seed.
• West Virginia does not have the out of conference results — victory hosting UCLA next month would completely reverse this statement — but they’re a step above the rest of the Big East. If the rest of the Big East wasn’t also highly inexperienced, I’d fear a collapse is possible. The WVU philosophy may not generate NBA players, but it’ll get 9+ conference wins. 21-8 (10-6) will get them a #6-7.

Louisville, Syracuse, and Connecticut (60%)

• Louisville barely traveled in 2006 and didn’t win anything significant, so their 4-2 start comes as a surprise. It’s the product of beating teams with which they are competitive (USF, Providence, DePaul, and UConn) and losing to the better teams (ND and Marquette). The road gets harder from here out and a 5-5 finish would be appropriate. That would send them to MSG at 19-11 (9-7) and a tournament win might be a must to get an NCAA bid. Unfortunately, finishing 5-5 or thereabouts provides a reason to doubt their tournament worthiness. The seed would be anywhere from #8 to #12.
• Syracuse and Louisville might as well swap jerseys. The Orange barely traveled and lost to 3 of the 4 Top 100 schools in their out of conference schedule. All of those games were played in the Dome or MSG (Oklahoma St.). In conference, Syracuse has done well to beat Marquette and Villanova, particularly the former on the road, but they should have handled St. John’s better. The rest of the conference schedule is at least as nasty as Louisville’s. They’ll do well to go 5-5 and head to MSG with the same goal: add a conference win to a 19-11 (9-7) finish and earn a seed from #8-12
• UConn was not prepared for conference play, and the record shows. They ran through 11 non-conference games as efficiently as anyone in the country, but all of those games were at home against inferior competition. The rest of their out of conference schedule takes place in 2007. Losing to LSU was reasonable on the road, and UConn showed promise hosting Indiana. In conference, losses to WVU, Marquette, and Pittsburgh look reasonable. The loss to Louisville really hurts their chances. Unlike Louisville and the Cuse, UConn has a favorable schedule left. They play six of 10 conference games at home where they’ve been much better all year, and the competition is mostly equal or inferior. If they can turn it around and finish 7-4 the rest of the way, 20-10 (9-7) will give them a reasonable shot at a bid around #8-12.

Providence and DePaul (20%)

• Providence’s season hinges on their next five — four nasty road games sandwiching a visit by Cincinnati. UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame will host the Friars and are all moderate favorites to win those games. If the Friars fall to 4-7 or worse in conference, they won’t have enough to claw back into position against several other teams vying for the same tournament bids. I project a 17-12 (7-9) finish and a journey through the NIT.
• DePaul traveled far and often early in the season. Had they won a few of those games, they’d be in great shape. Their performances have been up and down, so they have a shot against most of the Big East. Five of nine remaining games are at home, plus three of the last four should be easy victories. I think DePaul will get to 8-8 in conference for a 17-13 finish and an NIT bid. Despite the level of difficulty, all of the early season losses will take their toll unless they make a long Big East tournament run.

The Rest (5%)

• Seton Hall’s preseason was unimpressive, and the rest of the season will be harsh. They’ll do well to stay above .500 overall (15-14) and perhaps get an NIT bid.
• St. John’s has three decent conference wins — DePaul, Syracuse, and Notre Dame — all at home. There’s lots of road games left on the schedule. 15-15 would be a fine finish.
• Cincinnati stole one from WVU. That and a victory over Xavier might be this year’s highlights. 14-16 would be a solid finish.
• South Florida…yikes. They’ve been mostly helpless and are staring at a 13-17 season.
• Rutgers gets another one with Cincinnati on February 10. Perhaps that’ll get them to 2-14 in conference. The challenge will be to steal one more, because 10-19 is much more aesthetically pleasing than 9-20.

Add up all the odds and it looks like an eight bid year again, but I’ll hold out hope. In December, I foresaw a conference with zero elite squads, 9-11 good squads, and 5-7 poor ones. That trichotomy has become more evident six weeks later, but the conference as a whole did not fare well enough in November and December. Last year, the Big East was among the very best conferences and 9-7 was an excellent result. I fear that 10 wins will be a prerequisite for an NCAA bid this time.

Categories: Dan'l B, Postseason