• Notre Dame will beat Alabama tonight. The unranked Irish will be the underdog in the public’s eye against the #4 or #5 team in the country, depending on which poll you prefer. I believe ND is the better team. I rate Notre Dame 7 points better than Alabama on a neutral court, and they’re playing in South Bend. ND has played some high quality teams–that Butler loss on a semi-neutral court in Indianapolis is starting to look like a high quality loss, and they beat the Terrapins in DC. Meanwhile, Alabama’s resume features one win against a team that figures to make the NCAA tournament: Xavier. Notre Dame is currently a 1-point favorite in Vegas.
• The Big East will send nine teams to the Dance. We should be confident in the quality of play from four schools right now–Pitt, Villanova, UConn, and Notre Dame. The second tier is huge, with eight teams that project to be around the bubble in terms of quality of play right now. The key to sending nine teams to the dance is having 9-10 teams with .500 or better records in conference play, and that’s where terrible seasons from USF and Rutgers come in. Rutgers is looking like they’re in danger of an 0-16 season, and USF is only a bit better. (Sorry Bulls and Scarlet Knights fans.)
• On the morning of March 15, Butler will be undefeated. I’m not sure what kind of impact this might have on the tournament, but I think it’s a fair possibility. They’ve played a tough schedule and beaten all comers so far. There are still a few tests–Purdue is decent and visits on Dec. 16, there’s the home-and-home with Loyola-Chicago, who has played about as well as Georgetown thus far, and in mid-February Butler will draw a mid-major for the Bracket Buster. Aside from that, Butler can breeze through everybody else just as they have the last two times out. If Butler gets through unscathed, will they be considered for a very high seed? I’m thinking that they’ll land in the 4-5 range, but their RPI would point to #1 or #2.

Categories: Commentary, Dan'l B
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